Prediction markets put the probability at 91%: US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as likely (91% YES).
The diplomatic landscape surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remains volatile as the **13 July 2026** renewal of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, dubbed a "Wall of Steel" by President Donald Trump, continues to choke maritime traffic. This action, which ended a 60-day ceasefire following Iran’s attacks on commercial vessels on **7 July**, has driven dry-bulk transits to well below monthly averages, according to the Signal Ocean Weekly Dry Market Monitor. The blockade’s enforcement is a central sticking point in ongoing negotiations, with Trump stating on **3 August** that talks are Iran’s "last chance" and demanding "Total Surrender," a position that casts doubt on any near-term diplomatic breakthrough. [Ajot, Aug 06]
Despite the hawkish rhetoric, a potential off-ramp exists. On **14 June 2026**, the US and Iran announced a deal to end the war, with Trump declaring the naval blockade would be lifted and "Ships of the World, start your engines." However, that agreement collapsed amid renewed hostilities in July, leading to fresh US air strikes on the Iranian coastline on **9 July**. The current market probability of 91% for a scenario where the **US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31,** reflects a belief that the structural pressure of a closed strait—which impacts global oil prices and supply chains—will force a new accord, even as the White House insists on maximalist terms. [NPR, Jun 14]
The key variable determining whether the **US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31,** is the interplay between military pressure and economic necessity. While US Central Command insists Iran "does not control" the strait, the forward supply surpluses noted in dry-bulk markets, particularly on Panamax vessels, indicate that prolonged disruption is creating global logistical bottlenecks. Analysts note that the blockade’s effectiveness is measured not just by naval dominance but by the willingness of commercial shippers to risk transit, a factor that could compel a policy shift. The structural factor for resolution remains the same as in June: a deal that allows oil to flow while giving Washington a face-saving concession from Tehran, a balance that has proven elusive since the ceasefire broke down. [RFE/RL, Jul 24]
Polymarket prices this at 91c YES with $140K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
Smart money positioned NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0845..6f | MM | YES | $1.4K | -2% |
YES wallets entered between 93c. At current price 91c, none of the NO holders are profitable vs none of the YES holders are profitable. Both sides have similar profitability — no structural edge.
Polymarket prices YES at 91c with $140K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 91c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 91c | $140K |
| Our Model | 91c | — |