AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 54c |
8%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | 60c |
40%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 28c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 37c |
60%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 36c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet took the NO side at 41c, betting the 60-day negotiation window would not be extended. That contrarian positioning now runs against a 63c YES consensus, and with the wallet showing no profit, its signal is weak — one underwater NO entry is not enough conviction to fade the YES-leaning crowd.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $10.2K | +70% | |
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | NO | $7.2K | -1% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$14,962 on $17.5K capital deployed (avg +85.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $2.9M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 36c | — | ✓ matched |