How did 'US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 01, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $5.5M

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

Resolved · MAY 01

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (4 of 6 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (4 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.

Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 7 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	6c	88%
Compound Signal	NO	27c	46%
Claude Analysis	NO	5c	88%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	8c	92%
Grok Contrarian	YES	18c	60%
Gemini Flash	NO	15c	70%
Kimi Macro	NO	10c	80%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 13c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

5 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money positioned decisively NO at 38-46c, a structural fade of diplomatic optionality that has fully played out. The absence of any profitable YES holder and concentrated NO conviction signals continued downside; tracked wallets see no path to a meeting materializing by April 30.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x5188..04	MM	NO	$8.6K	+96%
This Market Entered at 46c → now 50c (+96%), $8.6K on NO Activity · 1 event · Apr 24 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 24BUYNO46+$4,387$4,386 Realized— Unrealized+$4,211 Total Profit+$4,211 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1586) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x24c8..e1	MM	NO	$7.8K	+64%
This Market Entered at 38c → now 50c (+64%), $7.8K on NO Activity · 3 events · Apr 15 → Apr 25 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 15BUYNO14+$162$162 Apr 21BUYNO17+$778$978 Apr 25BUYNO83+$2,278$7,073 Realized— Unrealized+$4,534 Total Profit+$4,534 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1680) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc658..84	MM	YES	$3.0K	-83%
This Market Entered at 62c → now 50c (-83%), $3.0K on YES Activity · 2 events · Apr 21 → Apr 24 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 21BUYYES54+$1,931$1,931 Apr 24BUYYES63+$17,782$20,033 Realized— Unrealized−$16,698 Total Profit−$16,698 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1790) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$2.5K	-74%
This Market Entered at 57c → now 50c (-74%), $2.5K on YES Activity · 10 events · Apr 14 → Apr 25 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 14BUYYES86+$2,970$2,970 Apr 14SELLYES88−$55$3,006 Apr 20BUYYES89+$198$3,231 Apr 21BUYYES74+$7,989$10,669 Apr 21SELLYES76−$5,659$5,383 Apr 22BUYYES55+$2,448$6,341 Apr 22SELLYES58−$1,499$5,102 Apr 24BUYYES48+$9,882$14,111 Apr 24SELLYES68−$3,543$16,581 Apr 25BUYYES21+$427$5,633 Realized+$418 Unrealized−$12,635 Total Profit−$12,217 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1406) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$1.3K	-91%
This Market Entered at 89c → now 50c (-91%), $1.3K on YES Activity · 4 events · Apr 15 → Apr 24 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 15BUYYES87+$590$590 Apr 20BUYYES90+$1,291$1,902 Apr 21BUYYES90+$10,592$12,500 Apr 24BUYYES63+$203$8,874 Realized— Unrealized−$11,331 Total Profit−$11,331 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1898) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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70% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$16,038 on $23.2K capital deployed (avg +69.1%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

70% in profit

YES positions

30% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	10c	$5.5M	0c
AI Consensus	13c	—	✓ matched

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