Will 8+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Prediction markets put the probability at 18%: Will 8+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (18% YES). How long is extra time in the World Cup? Teams will now have to play until there is a winner as the World Cup enters its knockout stage.

What’s Happening

The question of whether 8+ matches will be decided by penalty shootout during the FIFA World Cup has moved into sharp focus as the 2026 tournament entered its expanded knockout phase. The 48-team format introduced a new Round of 32, pushing the total knockout bracket to 32 matches — from the Round of 32 through the final — and multiplying the opportunities for ties that cannot be broken in regulation. Under FIFA rules, knockout games level after 90 minutes proceed to 30 minutes of extra time plus stoppage, and if still deadlocked, are decided from the spot. The opening slate delivered immediately: two of the first four Round of 32 fixtures went to a shootout, alongside two matches settled by stoppage-time goals. [Yahoo Sports, Jun 30]

The early results underscore why the market sits at 18% YES. Paraguay eliminated Germany on penalties in Foxborough, Massachusetts, with goalkeeper Manuel Neuer unable to prevent what AP called the biggest upset of the tournament. Hours earlier, Morocco beat the Netherlands 1-1 (on penalties) to advance, while Brazil edged Japan 2-1 in a match settled inside regulation. With two shootouts already logged this deep into only the first round, the running record keeps the over-8 threshold mathematically alive but still statistically demanding across the remaining bracket. [ESPN, Jun 30]

Historically, reaching 8+ matches decided by penalty shootout during the FIFA World Cup would be an outlier: the 2022 edition in Qatar produced four shootouts across a 64-match bracket, and no prior tournament has approached eight. The 2026 expansion to 104 total matches raises the ceiling, but the standings math still favors the NO side at 82% — teams must repeatedly draw level through 120 minutes for the count to climb. The next data points come as the Round of 32 completes and the Round of 16 begins, when the pace of shootouts over the coming rounds will determine whether the 8+ matches decided by penalty shootout line clears. [The Athletic, Jun 28]

Traded on Polymarket — $66K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($66K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 18c YES.