AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 30c |
40%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 13c |
62%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 14c |
72%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 14c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 15c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Both tracked wallets sit exclusively on the NO side (82c-93c entries), signaling smart money is positioned against Norway reaching the final. The absence of any YES entries and 0% YES profitability reinforces a directional NO lean, though the 82c floor on some entries shows this conviction built up only as the market already leaned heavily against Norway. Net read: smart money expects Norway to fall short, consistent with the 14c YES price.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xcf6c..66 | MM | NO | $25.6K | +4% | |
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $1.5K | -8% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$5,552 on $27.1K capital deployed (avg +20.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 14c | $689.4K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 15c | — | ✓ matched |