AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (4 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 4c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 5c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 18c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 5c |
95%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioned exclusively on NO at 91c entries, signaling high-conviction disbelief that another country will strike Iran before April 30, 2026. The absence of YES positioning and uniform NO entry pricing suggests consensus alpha read: geopolitical escalation risk is priced too high by the retail market, and drift toward 0c resolution is the expected path.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 | Retail | NO | $1.2K | +4% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$120 on $1.2K capital deployed (avg +9.9%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $815.4K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |