How did 'Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on Jul 01, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Jul 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $741.1K

Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?

Resolved · JUL 01

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (3 of 6 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.

DIRECTION WRONG

86c

100c

Stop Loss Target Final

3 of 6 Models Agreed: NO

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	30c	40%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	5c	75%
Grok Contrarian	YES	15c	60%
Gemini Flash	???	35c	60%
Kimi Macro	NO	15c	75%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 33c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 5c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x24c8..e1	MM	YES	$2.4K	-8%
This Market Entered at 5c → now 50c (-8%), $2.4K on YES Track Record 25d on platform · 1690 trades · geopolitics specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1690) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$2,406 on $2.4K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

0% in profit

YES positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	5c	$741.1K	0c
AI Consensus	33c	—	✓ matched

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