Prediction markets put the probability at 14%: Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (14% YES). ©2026 FOX News Network, LLC.
Belgium advanced to the round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup after a dramatic extra-time comeback against Senegal in the round of 32. Trailing by multiple goals with roughly five minutes remaining in regulation at Seattle Stadium on Wednesday, July 1, the Red Devils rallied to force extra time, where captain Youri Tielemans converted the decisive strike before the tie was settled on a penalty kick following a VAR review. The result extends Belgium's stay in the Pacific Northwest and keeps alive the question of whether Belgium reach the semifinals at the FIFA World Cup, with current odds sitting at 14% YES against 86% NO. [Deadspin, Jul 02]
Belgium's path now runs through the United States, with bookmakers framing the USA-Belgium round of 16 match as a near "pick 'em," underscoring how tightly the two sides are rated. To reach the final four, Belgium must win that fixture and then a quarterfinal, a two-match gauntlet reflected in the standings-based odds. Tournament-wide, oddsmakers have installed France as the favorite, with Argentina rising after a close call, leaving Belgium outside the top tier of contenders projected to advance deep. The margin in the Senegal tie, decided only after VAR intervention, illustrates the fine record separating survival from elimination at this stage. [Fox News, Jul 04]
Historically, Belgium's peak came at the 2018 World Cup, where a golden generation finished third, and expectations for whether Belgium reach the semifinals at the FIFA World Cup again hinge on replicating that knockout-round form. The winner of USA-Belgium would face the survivor of the adjacent bracket, where nations including Morocco and Canada remain in contention. With the Golden Boot race led by Messi over Mbappé, attacking depth across the field raises the difficulty of any deep run. Belgium's next fixture will determine whether the comeback in Seattle marks a turning point or the ceiling of their campaign. [Fox News, Jul 04]
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($69K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 14c YES.
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