Will Curtis Blaydes be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will Curtis Blaydes be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). Every Ilia Topuria FightUFC500K views • 12 days agoLivePlaylist ()Mix (50+)1:45:21.

What’s Happening

The prediction market for Curtis Blaydes becoming the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026, currently sits at a 6% probability, reflecting the steep climb the No. 5-ranked heavyweight faces in a rapidly evolving division. Blaydes (18-5 MMA, 13-5 UFC) last competed on June 14, 2026, at UFC Freedom 250, where he secured a second-round TKO over undefeated prospect Josh Hokit (10-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC), halting Hokit’s meteoric rise. That win snapped a two-fight skid for Blaydes, who had previously lost to Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich, and improved his record to 3-2 in his last five outings. However, the heavyweight title picture is now crowded with fresh contenders, including interim champion Ciryl Gane, who defeated Alex Pereira for the interim belt at the same event, and Jon Jones, who remains the undisputed champion but has not fought since March 2025 due to injury. [MMA Mania, Jun 22]

Blaydes’ path to the title on December 31, 2026, requires him to leapfrog multiple ranked opponents and secure a title shot, a scenario that appears statistically unlikely given the current standings. The 94% NO probability is driven by the depth of the heavyweight top five, which includes Jon Jones (undisputed champion), Ciryl Gane (interim champion), Tom Aspinall (No. 1 contender), and Sergei Pavlovich (No. 2). Blaydes’ record against elite competition is a concern: he is 0-2 against Aspinall (both first-round finishes) and 1-2 against Pavlovich, with his sole win coming via decision in 2022. Historical precedent also works against him—no heavyweight ranked outside the top three at the midpoint of a calendar year has won the title by year’s end since Stipe Miocic in 2016. [MMA Junkie, Jun 19]

What’s next for Blaydes hinges on the UFC’s scheduling of the heavyweight title unification bout between Jones and Gane, which is expected to headline a pay-per-view in late 2026. If Jones remains sidelined, the promotion could book Gane vs. Aspinall for the undisputed belt, further pushing Blaydes down the pecking order. Blaydes’ best chance to improve his odds would be a fight against a top-three opponent, such as Pavlovich or Aspinall, but neither has been linked to him since his win over Hokit. The 6% YES probability reflects a narrow window: Blaydes would need a dominant win over a top contender in the fall of 2026, combined with a title fight being vacated or delayed, to become the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31. [Telecom Asia Sport, Jun 18]

Traded on Polymarket — $66K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($66K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 6c YES.