Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 20% YES on Polymarket with $1.6M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 31c YES. 3 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

80c

YES

20c

Prediction markets put the probability at 20%: Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (20% YES).

Down from 62% to 20% since 2026-04-14 (-42pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $1.6M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $1.6M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 20c YES.

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Smart money signal: 3 tracked wallets positioned YES. Backed by $1.6M in trading volume.

CONFLICTING OUR VERDICT

HOLD

Smart money wallets positioned YES, but 3/7 models estimate NO. Signals conflict — waiting for consolidation.

— TARGET YIELD

Models Are Divided on This Market

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH Bayesian Update	NO	68c	—
MATH PIN Model	YES	80c	—
MATH Compound Signal	NO	52c	—
AI Claude Analysis	NO	88c	70%
AI DeepSeek Quant	???	32c	45%
AI Gemini Flash	???	40c	60%
AI Kimi Macro	YES	53c	70%

3 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (52–88c vs 80c). Claude Analysis leads with 70% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 69c — market prices it at 80c. 11-point gap supports YES.

Why One Model Disagrees: PIN Model dissents at 80c — PIN=75% informed trading. 3 smart vs 1 retail wallets. Informed capital concentrated 100% on YES. Fair value: 80% YES.

3 Active Wallets on This Market

Smart money built a one-sided YES thesis well above current market, signaling early conviction that Rodríguez consolidates power — a thesis the market has since rejected by half. With no NO entries to validate the fade and entries clustered 2-3x current price, this is a stranded long book: directional signal is stale, and absent fresh adds near 20c the smart-money read leans bearish by silence.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xc021..a8 ★	MM	YES	$1.8K	-50%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 41c → now 20c (-50%), $1.8K on YES Activity · 1 event · Jan 05 DatePositionAmountTotal Jan 05BUYYES41+$3,608$3,607 Realized— Unrealized−$1,797 Total Profit−$1,797 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1232) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xa8af..5e	MM	YES	$1.1K	-64%
This Market Entered at 56c → now 20c (-64%), $1.1K on YES Activity · 4 events · Jan 26 → May 06 DatePositionAmountTotal Jan 26BUYYES56+$1,009$1,009 Jan 28BUYYES57+$100$1,127 Jan 29BUYYES59+$1,758$2,924 May 06BUYYES24+$88$1,278 Realized— Unrealized−$1,863 Total Profit−$1,863 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1436) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xfcf2..69	Retail	YES	$1.0K	-30%
This Market Entered at 60c → now 20c (-30%), $1.0K on YES Activity · 11 events · Jan 06 → Mar 16 DatePositionAmountTotal Jan 06BUYYES40+$741$741 Jan 07BUYYES50+$1,138$2,072 Jan 08BUYYES55+$79$2,350 Jan 14BUYYES55+$550$2,900 Jan 16BUYYES55+$308$3,214 Jan 17BUYYES56+$27$3,292 Jan 18BUYYES55+$60$3,294 Feb 28BUYYES63+$24$3,818 Mar 03BUYYES49+$12$2,965 Mar 12BUYYES60+$2,823$6,444 Mar 16BUYYES59+$61$6,415 Realized— Unrealized−$1,919 Total Profit−$1,919 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1974 trades).

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No Positions Are Currently in Profit

All 3 tracked wallets entered YES at 41c-60c and now sit underwater at 20c, with 0% in profit and unrealized losses of 50-67%. No NO exposure means no offsetting wins; the entire smart-money book is deep in the red, removing any conviction-based price floor from this cohort.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 20c YES — $1.6M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 20c with $1.6M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 31c. Significant 11-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	20c	$1.6M
Our Model	31c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 20% YES with $1.6M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 31c YES. 3 models agree on direction.