Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (4 of 5 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Jun 10, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $2.4M

Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

Q: How did 'Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Jun 10, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUN 10

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES — 4 of 5 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 5 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 7 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	YES	69c	38%
Claude Analysis	YES	90c	70%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	84c	72%
Grok Contrarian	NO	15c	70%
Gemini Flash	YES	85c	70%
Kimi Macro	YES	84c	70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 75c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

4 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money is overwhelmingly positioned long despite the dominant_side flag reading NO — the 5 tracked wallets accumulated YES across a wide 56c-91c range, indicating sustained conviction rather than a single late chase. Early entries near 56c suggest informed positioning well before consensus, and the absence of profitable NO wallets points to continued upside toward resolution.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xd1ac..d5	MM	YES	$23.4K	+67%
This Market Entered at 56c → now 50c (+67%), $23.4K on YES Activity · 1 event · Nov 12 DatePositionAmountTotal Nov 12BUYYES56+$14,000$14,000 Realized— Unrealized+$9,400 Total Profit+$9,400 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1204) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0c0e..4e	MM	YES	$2.4K	-3%
This Market Entered at 96c → now 50c (-3%), $2.4K on YES Activity · 2 events · May 31 → Jun 01 DatePositionAmountTotal May 31BUYYES95+$130$130 Jun 01BUYYES96+$2,377$2,509 Realized— Unrealized−$70 Total Profit−$70 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1514) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b	MM	NO	$2.2K	-25%
This Market Entered at 8c → now 50c (-25%), $2.2K on NO Activity · 3 events · Mar 04 → Jun 01 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 04BUYNO27+$212$213 Apr 14BUYNO9+$2,389$2,457 Jun 01BUYNO3+$185$1,062 Realized— Unrealized−$608 Total Profit−$608 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1552) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xeb6f..f0	MM	YES	$1.2K	+9%
This Market Entered at 84c → now 50c (+9%), $1.2K on YES Activity · 4 events · Mar 26 → May 21 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 26BUYYES80+$978$978 Mar 31BUYYES86+$2,022$3,074 Mar 31SELLYES90−$2,116$1,100 May 21BUYYES99+$105$1,312 Realized+$143 Unrealized+$123 Total Profit+$266 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1332) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde04..37	Retail	NO	$1.0K	+8%
This Market Entered at 5c → now 50c (+8%), $1.0K on NO Activity · 16 events · Mar 26 → Jun 03 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 26BUYNO18+$369$369 Mar 31BUYNO10+$100$300 Apr 03BUYNO10+$132$432 Apr 04BUYNO10+$22$454 Apr 05BUYNO8+$318$678 Apr 09BUYNO9+$454$1,220 Apr 10BUYNO10+$455$1,815 Apr 11BUYNO13+$461$2,811 Apr 12BUYNO9+$190$2,143 Apr 15BUYNO8+$8$1,913 Apr 22BUYNO9+$209$2,344 May 28BUYNO2+$28$443 May 31BUYNO5+$664$2,075 Jun 01BUYNO4+$20$1,567 Jun 02BUYNO4+$3$1,632 Jun 03BUYNO4+$89$1,947 Realized— Unrealized+$236 Total Profit+$236 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1670 trades).

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

89% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$15,520 on $30.3K capital deployed (avg +51.3%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

89% in profit

NO positions

11% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	94c	$2.4M	100c
AI Consensus	75c	—	✓ matched

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