Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Prediction markets put the probability at 11%: Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (11% YES). Polls show the Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, could win an outright majority of seats in September in the state of Saxony-Anhalt, near Berlin.

What’s Happening

The Berlin state election, scheduled for September 2026, has entered a volatile final phase after a July 23 Insa poll showed the AfD leading in the capital for the first time with 19% support, narrowly ahead of the incumbent Social Democrats. This marks a historic shift in a city long considered a bastion of liberal and left-wing politics, though the party remains far from the threshold needed to claim the most seats. The afd most seats in the berlin state elections scenario is currently seen as unlikely by analysts, given that the party’s support is concentrated in the eastern districts of the city, while western boroughs continue to back the CDU and Greens at higher rates. The poll’s release coincided with heightened security debates following a July 27 attack at Berlin Pride, which officials have cited in calls for tighter extremism laws, a topic that could influence undecided voters in the final weeks of the campaign [Tvpworld, Jul 23].

The broader context for the Berlin vote is the AfD’s surge across eastern Germany, where it is projected to win outright majorities in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, also voting in September. A May 30 survey found that 47% of Germans oppose a federal ban on the party, while 38% support one, reflecting the deep polarization surrounding its rise. In Berlin, the AfD’s second-place standing in recent polls has already disrupted coalition arithmetic, with the CDU ruling out any cooperation and the Left party refusing to back a minority government that depends on AfD votes. The afd most seats in the berlin state elections outcome would require a collapse of the current governing coalition and a surge of more than 10 percentage points from current levels, a scenario that no major polling firm has modeled as plausible, yet the party’s momentum in the east has made national headlines [DW, May 30].

Procedurally, the Berlin election is a critical test of the so-called “firewall” against the far right, which has come under strain as mainstream parties struggle to form stable governments in the east. A Guardian analysis from August 19 noted that the consensus keeping the AfD out of power since 1945 may be eroding, particularly if the party wins in Saxony-Anhalt and then demands a share of executive power in Berlin’s city-state. The final candidate lists were certified in July, and the campaign now enters a phase dominated by debates over migration, housing costs, and public safety. While the 11% probability assigned to an AfD victory in Berlin reflects the structural hurdles, the party’s ability to top a capital-city poll for the first time has already reset expectations for the September vote, with all three eastern states now viewed as competitive battlegrounds for the far right [Guardian, Aug 19].

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