Iran signed the June 17 MoU extending its ceasefire 60 days, so a formal withdrawal by July 31 looks unlikely at 6%.
The US and Iran signed a two-page memorandum of understanding on June 17, 2026, extending their ceasefire by 60 days and committing both sides to more detailed talks on the future of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's frozen assets, long-term sanctions relief and Tehran's nuclear programme. In the two weeks that followed, fresh tensions emerged over the passage of ships through the strait, with each government advancing conflicting interpretations of what the accord requires. Against that backdrop, the question of whether Iran will announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31 has stayed a low-probability outcome, as neither party has signaled intent to abandon the framework despite mounting friction. [Al Jazeera, Jul 01]
Analysts describe the document as short on detail, noting it purports to grant significant up-front American concessions in exchange for opening a strait that was already open before the war. Iran has interpreted the MoU to not even require unimpeded access to the Strait of Hormuz — the very issue the Trump administration cited as its rationale for the deal. A US official told The Jerusalem Post that frozen Iranian funds will not be released until Tehran fulfills the MoU, while Foreign Minister Araghchi traded barbs with Washington and Tel Aviv. Domestic pressure is also visible: on July 6, hardliners protested the US negotiations in a Tehran metro station, chanting slogans against Trump. [Jerusalem Post, Jul 02]
The structural factor is Iran's insistence on an illegal toll scheme in the Strait of Hormuz; the Institute for the Study of War reported on July 3 that Tehran rejected an Omani proposal for a voluntary "maritime services" fund, seeking mandatory fees instead. Whether Iran will announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31 depends on whether this dispute escalates into a formal breakdown or remains a bargaining tactic inside the 60-day window, which does not lapse until mid-August. As of early July, both sides continue to talk rather than walk. [ISW, Jul 03]
Polymarket prices this at 6c YES with $388K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
Smart money entered NO at 91c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 91c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $7.7K | +3% |
NO wallets entered at 91c. At current price 6c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.
Polymarket prices YES at 6c with $388K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 6c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $388K |
| Our Model | 6c | — |