AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 7c |
75%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
72%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 15c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 12c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioned exclusively short on Mills via NO at 57c, signaling early conviction that she would not secure the Democratic nomination. The absence of any tracked YES exposure combined with a 51-point price collapse confirms the directional thesis was correct. Wallet behavior implies the market views this outcome as effectively resolved, with no smart capital fading the move.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc1b3..1c | MM | NO | $3.6K | +54% | |
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | YES | $1.3K | +53% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,405 on $4.8K capital deployed (avg +29.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $599.4K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 12c | — | ✓ matched |