Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Prediction markets put the probability at 30%: Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (30% YES). Will Haaland, Messi, or Mbappé win the Golden Boot? Lionel Messi Kylian Mbappe Erling Haaland FIFA Men's World Cup Norway Argentina France.

What’s Happening

As of late June 2026, Lionel Messi’s bid for the Lionel Messi Golden Ball at the FIFA World Cup is gaining serious momentum, driven by a historic start to Argentina’s title defense. The 39-year-old forward has already broken the all-time World Cup scoring record, surpassing Miroslav Klose’s previous mark of 16 goals, after netting a brace in Argentina’s 2-0 second-round victory over Austria on June 24. Messi currently leads the Golden Boot race with 5 goals in the tournament, and his form has been impeccable—Argentina has posted two clean-sheet wins to open the group stage, with Messi directly contributing to all four goals. This performance places him as a frontrunner for the tournament’s best player award, though the Golden Ball is typically awarded to the standout performer of the entire competition, not just the top scorer. [Fox Sports, Jun 23]

The significance of Messi’s run extends beyond individual accolades, as his leadership has Argentina positioned as a top contender for back-to-back World Cup titles—a feat not achieved since Brazil in 1962. However, the Lionel Messi Golden Ball at the FIFA World Cup remains a difficult prize to win, given the award’s historical tendency to favor players from the winning team. Since the Golden Ball was introduced in 1982, only two players from non-champion sides have won it: Diego Maradona in 1990 and Ronaldo in 1998. Argentina’s path to the final is challenging, with potential knockout-round matchups against France or Norway, both of whom feature Golden Boot contenders Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland. Messi’s age and workload—he has played every minute of Argentina’s matches so far—also raise durability questions as the tournament progresses deeper into the knockout stages. [Bleacher Report, Jun 24]

Looking ahead, the next critical test for Messi’s Golden Ball candidacy will come in the Round of 16, where Argentina faces a yet-to-be-determined opponent from Group D. Historical precedent suggests that a deep run—ideally reaching the semifinals or final—is essential for Golden Ball consideration, as the award’s voting panel of journalists heavily weighs team success. Messi’s current 30% implied probability reflects both his strong start and the uncertainty of Argentina’s knockout-stage trajectory. If he maintains his scoring pace and Argentina advances to the final, he would become the first player to win the Golden Ball in consecutive World Cups, having taken the award home in 2022. The Lionel Messi Golden Ball at the FIFA World Cup narrative will hinge on whether he can sustain his historic form under the pressure of a title defense, with the next match scheduled for June 28. [Telecom Asia Sport, Jun 24]

Traded on Polymarket — $51K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($51K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 30c YES.