Will Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?

Prediction markets put the probability at 10%: Will Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (10% YES). Which teams have been eliminated from the World Cup? ATLANTA ― The 2026 World Cup continues to deliver.

What’s Happening

Mexico advanced to the Round of 16 at the 2026 World Cup after defeating Ecuador 2-0 on Tuesday, June 30 at the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, ending a knockout-stage drought stretching back four decades. The victory, sealed in front of a home crowd and capped by celebrations around forward Julián Quiñones, marked El Tri's first World Cup knockout win since 1986. As co-host of the expanded 48-team tournament, Mexico has navigated the early rounds on home soil, and the win over an old regional nemesis positions the team for a deeper run. The framing of whether Mexico be eliminated in the semifinals of the World Cup rests first on the team reaching that stage, which requires clearing at least two additional knockout matches. [Los Angeles Times, Jul 01]

Historically, El Tri has repeatedly stalled at the Round of 16, exiting at that stage in seven consecutive tournaments before this year's breakthrough. The 2-0 result over Ecuador therefore represents a departure from a long-standing pattern rather than a return to form, and it recalibrates expectations for a squad that entered the tournament as Group A hosts. Recent performance has trended upward: after group-stage results including a match against South Africa featuring striker Raul Jimenez, Mexico carried momentum into the knockout bracket. The odds of Mexico be eliminated in the semifinals of the World Cup remain low in part because that outcome demands the team first win two more rounds — a standard El Tri has not met since the tournament was last held on home soil in 1986. [NBC News, Jul 01]

Mexico's next fixture is scheduled for Sunday, a home Round-of-16 match against the winner of the England versus Democratic Republic of the Congo tie. A win there would send El Tri to the quarterfinals, with a semifinal berth two victories away. The tournament's expanded format has produced a crowded knockout field, with the round of 32 continuing through the end of June and marquee sides including France and Norway still active in the bracket. For Mexico, the path to a potential semifinal exit runs through the quarterfinal round first, keeping the near-term standings focus on Sunday's matchup rather than any later-stage scenario. [USA Today, Jul 01]

Traded on Polymarket — $53K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($53K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 10c YES.