Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 67% YES on Polymarket with $1.8M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 74c YES. 6 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

YES

67c

33c

Prediction markets put the probability at 67%: Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026. Currently, markets are divided (67% YES, 33% NO).

Up from 20% to 67% since 2026-04-14 (+47pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $1.8M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $1.8M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 67c YES.

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On this market: 6/5 AI models agree YES. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.

CONFLICTING OUR VERDICT

HOLD

Smart money wallets positioned NO, but 6/6 models estimate YES. Signals conflict — waiting for consolidation.

— TARGET YIELD

6 of 6 Models Agree: YES

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH PIN Model	YES	98c	—
MATH Compound Signal	YES	56c	—
AI Claude Analysis	YES	72c	55%
AI DeepSeek Quant	YES	77c	65%
AI Gemini Flash	YES	75c	65%
AI Kimi Macro	YES	67c	77%

6 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (56–98c vs 67c). Kimi Macro leads with 77% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of YES at 74c — market prices it at 67c. 7-point gap supports YES.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money accumulated YES at 25-49c — well below current 67c — signaling early conviction that Maduro retains power through 2026 despite sanctions and opposition pressure. Despite the 'NO dominant side' tag, the absence of tracked NO entries and uniform YES profitability suggests informed flow leans toward regime continuity, not transition.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x0c0e..4e	MM	YES	$6.0K	+54%
This Market Entered at 44c → now 67c (+54%), $6.0K on YES Activity · 1 event · Apr 17 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 17BUYYES44+$3,893$3,893 Realized— Unrealized+$2,093 Total Profit+$2,093 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1526) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xa8af..5e	MM	YES	$2.8K	+67%
This Market Entered at 25c → now 67c (+67%), $2.8K on YES Activity · 7 events · Jan 30 → May 06 DatePositionAmountTotal Jan 30BUYYES10+$292$292 Feb 14BUYYES11+$7$328 Mar 09BUYYES13+$23$407 Apr 22BUYYES54+$269$1,940 May 02BUYYES65+$323$2,650 May 06BUYYES62+$223$2,767 May 06SELLYES62−$212$2,559 Realized+$125 Unrealized+$1,725 Total Profit+$1,851 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1436) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$2.6K	+31%
This Market Entered at 49c → now 67c (+31%), $2.6K on YES Activity · 3 events · Apr 16 → Apr 18 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 16BUYYES37+$261$261 Apr 17BUYYES51+$1,577$1,938 Apr 18BUYYES60+$9$2,298 Realized— Unrealized+$716 Total Profit+$716 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1870) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All YES Positions Are in Profit

All 3 tracked YES wallets entered between 25-49c and sit deep in profit at 67c, locking in 35-170% paper gains. With zero NO exposure tracked and 100% YES profitability, holders have strong incentive to hold rather than rotate, providing price floor support around their average entry zone.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 67c YES — $1.8M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 67c with $1.8M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 74c. 7-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	67c	$1.8M
Our Model	74c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 67% YES with $1.8M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 74c YES. 6 models agree on direction.