Geopolitics

Resolves: Dec 2026 4 months left Volume: $2.8M

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?'?

As of August 2026, prediction markets price this at 86% YES on Polymarket with $2.8M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 5 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 90c YES. 4 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

YES

86c

14c

Prediction markets put the probability at 86%: Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026. Currently, markets see this as likely (86% YES).

Up from 67% to 86% since 2026-05-31 (+19pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $2.8M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $2.8M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 86c YES.

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On this market: 4/5 models independently agree YES — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.

PRO Analysis

What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY YES 86c

4/5 models agree on YES, fair value 90c vs market 86c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

4 of 5 Models Agree: YES

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH PIN Model	YES	98c	—
AI DeepSeek Quant	YES	88c	72%
AI Grok Contrarian	???	62c	28%
AI Gemini Flash	YES	88c	85%
AI Kimi Macro	YES	86c	75%

4 of 5 models estimate YES fair value above market (86–98c vs 86c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of YES at 90c — market prices it at 86c. 4-point gap supports YES.

Why One Model Is Uncertain: Grok Contrarian at 62c — Market 86% YES and PIN 98% from 100% informed YES concentration ignore fat-tail removal risks in remaining 125 days: Maduro age/health sh...

5 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 5 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 5 market makers are providing $17K in liquidity, primarily on YES. YES wallets entered between 26c–74c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x0c0e..4e	MM	YES	$7.7K	+97%
This Market Entered at 44c → now 86c (+97%), $7.7K on YES Activity · 1 event · Apr 17 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 17BUYYES44+$3,893$3,893 Realized— Unrealized+$3,773 Total Profit+$3,773 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1306) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xa8af..5e	MM	YES	$3.6K	+81%
This Market Entered at 26c → now 86c (+81%), $3.6K on YES Activity · 9 events · Jan 30 → Jul 10 DatePositionAmountTotal Jan 30BUYYES10+$292$292 Feb 14BUYYES11+$7$328 Mar 09BUYYES13+$23$407 Apr 22BUYYES54+$269$1,940 May 02BUYYES65+$323$2,650 May 06BUYYES62+$223$2,767 May 06SELLYES62−$212$2,559 Jun 15BUYYES74+$68$3,117 Jul 10SELLYES79−$60$3,264 Realized+$165 Unrealized+$2,473 Total Profit+$2,638 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1446) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	YES	$2.7K	+47%
This Market Entered at 51c → now 86c (+47%), $2.7K on YES Activity · 3 events · Apr 16 → Apr 18 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 16BUYYES37+$261$261 Apr 17BUYYES51+$1,577$1,938 Apr 18BUYYES60+$9$2,298 Realized— Unrealized+$1,086 Total Profit+$1,086 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1958) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xeb6f..f0	MM	YES	$1.6K	+17%
This Market Entered at 74c → now 86c (+17%), $1.6K on YES Activity · 1 event · Jun 16 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 16BUYYES74+$1,396$1,396 Realized— Unrealized+$240 Total Profit+$240 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1224) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c15..db	MM	YES	$1.3K	+28%
This Market Entered at 67c → now 86c (+28%), $1.3K on YES Activity · 1 event · Jun 03 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 03BUYYES67+$1,026$1,026 Realized— Unrealized+$285 Total Profit+$285 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1254) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All YES Positions Are in Profit

YES wallets entered between 26c–74c. At current price 86c, all YES holders are profitable while all NO buyers are underwater. Profitable positions rarely sell early — YES side has structural price support.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket: 86c YES — $2.8M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 86c with $2.8M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 90c. 4-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	86c	$2.8M
Our Model	90c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

As of August 2026, Polymarket prices this at 86% YES with $2.8M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

OddsShift tracks 5 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 90c YES. 4 models agree on direction.