Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 43%: Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets are divided (43% YES, 57% NO). Bitcoin in danger of dropping to $60,000, with Zcash bulls turning their backs on ZEC.

What’s Happening

Solana traded at $78.80 on June 2, 2026, down approximately 2% on the session as crypto majors sold off broadly following Michael Saylor's disclosure that Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin between May 26 and May 31 — the company's first reported BTC sale since 2022. Bitcoin fell 4% to $69,300 on the news, while Ethereum held flat near $1,980 and HYPE traded around $72.80. The coordinated weakness across large-cap tokens underscores how single-issuer disclosures from major treasury holders continue to drive short-term price discovery across the sector. [Decrypt, Jun 2]

The broader digital-asset treasury cohort has lost roughly $62 billion in fully diluted market value since early October 2025, with combined valuation falling to approximately $72 billion from a peak near $134 billion, according to Artemis data. The drawdown has outpaced Bitcoin itself, which is down roughly 50% from its October high, reflecting the unwinding of the DAT premium that previously inflated treasury-vehicle equity valuations. Analysts at CoinDesk flagged a downside scenario in which Bitcoin retests $60,000, a level that would historically correlate with a Solana dip to $40 range given SOL's high beta to BTC during prior 2022 and 2024 drawdowns. [CoinDesk, Jun 5]

With SOL currently near $78.80, a move to the $40 strike would require a further 49% decline by December 31, 2026 — a roughly seven-month window. Historical reference points include SOL's $8 low during the FTX collapse in November 2022 and the $120 support tested earlier in 2025, framing $40 as a mid-cycle bear scenario rather than a tail event. Whether Solana dips to $40 will depend on Bitcoin's holding the $60,000 structural support, the pace of further treasury-company deleveraging, and ETF flow data into year-end. A continued solana dip to $40 trajectory would also likely require sustained outflows from spot SOL products and a broader compression of the altcoin risk premium. [Decrypt, Jun 2]

Traded on Polymarket — $98K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($98K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 42c YES.