Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 94%: Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (94% YES). This flight will put Starship under higher pressure and test out new Starlink satellites in orbit.

What’s Happening

SpaceX is targeting Thursday, July 16, 2026, for the launch of its Starship Flight Test 13 from the company's Starbase facility in Texas. The mission, which will utilize the upgraded Starship Version 3 (V3) vehicle, is scheduled to open a launch window at 5:45 pm CDT (22:45 UTC). This flight follows the previous test in May 2026, which encountered booster engine failures during ascent and the boostback burn. For Flight 13, the primary objectives include a successful launch, ascent, stage separation, and a controlled landing burn of the Super Heavy booster at an offshore platform in the Gulf of Mexico. The booster has already completed a static fire test of all 33 Raptor 3 engines, and the upper stage has fired its six engines, clearing key pre-launch milestones. [Ars Technica, Jul 14]

A distinguishing feature of this flight is the planned deployment of 20 Starlink V3 satellites into orbit, marking the first time SpaceX will attempt to release operational payloads during a Starship test flight. The mission will also place the Starship upper stage under higher pressure conditions than previous flights to validate the vehicle's performance envelope. This test represents a critical step in SpaceX's iterative development process, as the company transitions from purely experimental flights to missions with commercial utility. The Starship V3 design, which debuted on Flight 12, features increased propellant capacity and more powerful engines, making it the largest and most powerful rocket ever built. [Space, Jul 13]

The SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31 timeline appears highly probable given the current launch window opening on July 16, which leaves a substantial margin before the end-of-month deadline. SpaceX has rolled the Super Heavy booster back for final checkouts, and the company has publicly confirmed the July 16 target date via social media posts and official documentation. The success of this flight will inform the pace of subsequent missions, including potential orbital refueling demonstrations and larger satellite deployment campaigns. If the launch proceeds as scheduled, it will be the second flight of the V3 configuration and a significant milestone in SpaceX's goal of achieving rapid reusability with the Starship system. [SpaceX, Jul 12]

Traded on Polymarket — $55K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($55K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 94c YES.