Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?

Prediction markets put the probability at 74%: Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode. Currently, markets see this as likely (74% YES). Starship Flight 13 scrubbed at launch as engines fail to ignite in Texas.

What’s Happening

SpaceX aborted the launch of Starship Flight 13 on July 16, 2026, halting the countdown at the last moment after some of the Super Heavy booster's engines failed to ignite at Starbase, Texas. A graphic on SpaceX's live stream indicated that four of the 33 Raptor 3 engines never lit during the startup sequence, prompting the company to call off the attempt for the day. The mission is the second flight of Starship "Version 3" (V3), a larger, more powerful upgrade the company intends to advance toward operational status. The question of whether the spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy explode scenario plays out remains unresolved, as the vehicle never left the pad. [SpaceNews, Jul 17]

The scrub followed weeks of preparation, including a full-duration static fire on July 11 in which SpaceX ignited all 33 Raptor 3 engines on the Super Heavy booster and all six Raptors on the upper stage. Flight 13 had been targeted for no earlier than Thursday, July 16, per a July 11 SpaceX social media post. The stakes around whether a spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy explode event occurs are elevated because prior V3-era flights have ended in failure, including a booster that did not complete a controlled steering maneuver back toward the launch site. Elon Musk posted on his social platform shortly after the abort as engineers moved to isolate the root cause. [Space, Jul 16]

SpaceX said it identified the ignition problem quickly and moved to address it, positioning the company for a near-term second attempt once the booster is recycled and cleared. The outcome matters because V3 is the configuration SpaceX plans to use for future operational and lunar missions, making each test a data point on Raptor 3 reliability. Attention now shifts to the next launch window and whether all 33 engines reach full ignition and the vehicle survives ascent, stage separation, and booster return without a destructive anomaly. [Eciks, Jul 17]

Traded on Polymarket — $63K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($63K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 74c YES.