Prediction markets put the probability at 59%: Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup. Currently, markets are divided (59% YES, 41% NO). Spain Beats Belgium to Advance to 2026 World Cup Semifinals.
Spain booked its place in the 2026 World Cup semifinals with a 2-1 victory over Belgium on Friday, July 10, setting up a last-four clash with France on Tuesday, July 14. Substitute Mikel Merino settled the tie with an 88th-minute winner after Fabián Ruiz had opened the scoring in the 30th minute and Charles De Ketelaere equalized in the 41st. The question of whether Spain be eliminated in the semifinals of the world cup now hinges on La Roja's record against a French side that cruised past Morocco 2-0 in its own quarterfinal. [Telecom Asia Sport, Jul 10]
By the numbers, Spain enters the semifinal unbeaten and statistically dominant. Against Belgium, La Roja controlled 68 percent of possession and registered eight shots on goal to Belgium's two, though the match also marked the first goal Spain had conceded all tournament. Led by teenage forward Lamine Yamal, Spain is chasing its second-ever World Cup semifinal appearance and its first final berth since winning the title in 2010. That defensive record — clean sheets until the quarterfinal — is the core of the case that Spain will not be eliminated in the semifinals of the world cup. [Bleacher Report, Jul 10]
The matchup carries historical weight: France eliminated Spain in a prior tournament meeting, and broadcasters have framed the fixture as a revenge opportunity for La Roja. France, the two-time champion, reached the semifinal without conceding against Morocco, making the standings between two of Europe's strongest sides razor-thin. With the current odds leaning toward Spain being eliminated in the semifinals of the world cup, the decisive factors will be whether Yamal's attack can break down a disciplined French backline and whether Spain's defense holds after its Belgium lapse. Kickoff is scheduled for July 14, with the winner advancing to the final. [CNN, Jul 10]
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($62K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 59c YES.
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