AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 27c |
46%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 78c |
70%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 65c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 65c |
60%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
92%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 36c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The lone tracked wallet committed exclusively to NO at 24c, signaling early conviction that no Witkoff-Iran meeting would occur by April 30. That entry has been validated by the 16-point drift toward resolution, suggesting smart money read the diplomatic calendar correctly and sees little path back to YES.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x24c8..e1 | MM | NO | $1.3K | +197% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$4,164 on $1.3K capital deployed (avg +319.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $218.7K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 36c | — | ✓ matched |