AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 90c |
80%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 82c |
55%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 42c |
61%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 85c |
80%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 85c |
72%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | — |
0%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 77c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 33c and is now up roughly 47c per share, signaling conviction that the Fed will decide differently across the Jun–Jul–Sep meetings. With no NO entries from this wallet, its positioning is unambiguously directional and bullish for YES. That early entry at a steep discount suggests informed or high-conviction flow rather than late momentum chasing.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa4b3..b8 | Retail | YES | $3.3K | +56% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$6,595 on $3.3K capital deployed (avg +202.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 80c | $384.9K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 77c | — | ✓ matched |