Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?

Prediction markets put the probability at 6%: Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (6% YES). Trump meets with national security officials as he weighs next steps on Iran.

What’s Happening

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in New Delhi on May 25, 2026 that Washington will pursue "another way" if ongoing Iran negotiations fail to produce an agreement, as the three-month-old war between Israel and Iran continues without resolution. Talks remain deadlocked on three structural issues: Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, navigation rights through the Strait of Hormuz, and US sanctions relief. President Donald Trump met Friday with top national security officials in Washington, canceling weekend plans including his son's wedding to weigh next steps, according to administration sources. The question of whether the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country has gained traction as direct bilateral contact remains absent and all communication continues to flow through third-party mediators. [Ynetnews, May 25]

Negotiations are being channeled through Pakistan, with Interior Minister Syed Mohsin Naqvi conducting shuttle diplomacy alongside Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Tehran on May 22. Mediators from Qatar have also been active, departing Tehran on May 23 after signaling that a framework agreement may be within reach. The Pakistan Army chief was reported to be preparing a visit to Iran to finalize text of a potential agreement. Hawks within the Trump administration argue military pressure remains the leverage forcing Iranian concessions, while regional analysts caution that any breakthrough requires a face-saving venue acceptable to Tehran, which has resisted direct talks on American or Israeli soil. Whether the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country such as Oman, Qatar, or Switzerland remains the operative procedural question shaping the structure of any deal. [CNN, May 23]

Trump publicly stated the United States would "give this one shot" on Iran negotiations while emphasizing he was "in no hurry," signaling flexibility on timeline but firmness on substance. The structural factor determining resolution is whether mediated indirect talks transition into a direct bilateral meeting at all — and if so, the host venue selected by both parties. Historical precedent from the 2015 JCPOA negotiations points to Vienna and Geneva as neutral hosts, while Oman has previously facilitated US-Iran backchannel contact since 2013. Iranian officials have publicly rejected American territory as a venue, and US officials have not signaled willingness to send delegations to Tehran. With Pakistan and Qatar currently absorbing the mediation burden and no announced bilateral meeting on the calendar, the likelihood that the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country hinges on whether Araqchi and Rubio agree to convert framework discussions into in-person sessions before military escalation forecloses the diplomatic track. [Jerusalem Post, May 22]

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