Will XRP reach $1.60 in May?

Prediction markets put the probability at 32%: Will XRP reach $1.60 in May. Currently, markets are divided (32% YES, 68% NO). Crypto News: Pepeto Presale Stages Update While Markets Ask if the XRP Price Prediction Can Reach $100.

What’s Happening

The prediction market assessing whether XRP will reach $1.60 in May currently assigns a 32% probability to the outcome, with the remaining 68% betting against the milestone. This pricing reflects a market that sees significant headwinds for the token despite broader crypto optimism. On-chain data shows XRP trading in a range between $1.12 and $1.28 over the past week, with daily volume averaging $2.3 billion — below the $3.8 billion average seen during the April rally. Whale wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP have reduced their positions by 2.1% since May 1, according to Santiment, suggesting large holders are not positioning for a near-term breakout to the $1.60 level. The token remains 34% below its April 2026 high of $1.94, and the current probability implies the market views a recovery to $1.60 in May as an unlikely event without a major catalyst. [Markets Business Insider, May 7]

The question of whether XRP can reach $1.60 in May is being shaped by two competing narratives in the crypto ecosystem. On one hand, recent commentary from Eric Trump, who has positioned himself as a vocal crypto advocate, has injected some optimism into the XRP community — his remarks about legacy finance shifting toward Bitcoin were interpreted by some as indirectly bullish for large-cap altcoins like XRP. On the other hand, the market is digesting news that AlphaPepe has finalized Tier-1 CEX listing partnerships, diverting retail attention and capital toward newer presale projects. The Pepeto presale has raised $9.78 million with new wallet entries doubling month-over-month, indicating that speculative liquidity is flowing into smaller-cap tokens rather than established names like XRP. This rotation away from large caps is a headwind for any near-term XRP price appreciation toward $1.60. [Markets Business Insider, May 6]

Looking ahead, the path for XRP to reach $1.60 in May depends on several technical and fundamental factors. The token is currently testing support at its 50-day moving average of $1.14, with the 200-day moving average at $0.98 providing a deeper floor. A break above the $1.35 resistance level — which has held since mid-April — would be the first technical signal that a run toward $1.60 is possible. On the fundamental side, ETF inflow data from CoinShares shows XRP-related investment products saw net outflows of $12 million last week, contrasting with $45 million in inflows for Bitcoin products. Regulatory clarity remains the wildcard: the SEC's ongoing case against Ripple has no major court dates scheduled in May, removing a potential catalyst. With 22 days remaining in the month, the probability of XRP reaching $1.60 in May will likely hinge on whether a surprise catalyst — such as a favorable court ruling or a major exchange listing — emerges to shift the current bearish momentum. [Bitget, May 3]

Traded on Polymarket — $54K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($54K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 32c YES.