Was the AI verdict correct?

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	YES	82c	64%
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	YES	58c	16%
Claude Analysis	YES	80c	65%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	79c	65%
Gemini Flash	YES	78c	65%
Kimi Macro	YES	79c	75%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 79c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

4 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Despite YES trading at 71c, dominant smart money sits on the NO side with disciplined low-cost entries, signaling conviction that MicroStrategy will not sell any Bitcoin before June 30. The asymmetry — profitable NO at deep discount versus marginal YES at elevated prices — suggests the 71c YES is overpriced relative to where informed capital accumulated.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x6bab..92 ★	MM	YES	$111.6K	+18%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 60c → now 50c (+18%), $111.6K on YES Activity · 13 events · May 06 → Jun 01 DatePositionAmountTotal May 06BUYYES27+$5,131$5,131 May 07BUYYES25+$1,168$6,094 May 07SELLYES38−$2,222$6,843 May 08BUYYES53+$1,927$11,585 May 10BUYYES55+$6,520$18,498 May 12BUYYES65+$6,073$27,649 May 20SELLYES58−$2,413$22,531 May 22BUYYES52+$3,427$23,477 May 25BUYYES37+$1,242$17,956 May 26BUYYES32+$137$15,819 May 30BUYYES67+$529$33,227 May 31BUYYES69+$69,071$103,628 Jun 01BUYYES74+$3,011$114,094 Realized+$1,226 Unrealized+$19,324 Total Profit+$20,550 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1686) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$10.0K	+34%
This Market Entered at 57c → now 50c (+34%), $10.0K on YES Activity · 9 events · May 06 → May 28 DatePositionAmountTotal May 06BUYYES29+$886$886 May 07BUYYES24+$251$1,001 May 10BUYYES63+$959$3,567 May 12SELLYES66−$1,424$2,293 May 13BUYYES68+$4,783$7,157 May 13SELLYES72−$465$7,094 May 15BUYYES78+$753$8,446 May 18BUYYES73+$664$8,535 May 28BUYYES52+$1,079$7,153 Realized+$713 Unrealized+$2,208 Total Profit+$2,921 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1042) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5188..04	MM	NO	$5.1K	-2%
This Market Entered at 28c → now 50c (-2%), $5.1K on NO Activity · 2 events · May 12 → May 31 DatePositionAmountTotal May 12BUYNO35+$350$350 May 31BUYNO28+$4,828$5,105 Realized— Unrealized−$121 Total Profit−$121 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1546) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x44c1..c1 +140%	MM	YES	$3.4K	-2%
This Market Entered at 74c → now 50c (-2%), $3.4K on YES ↑ Position grew +140% since last snapshot Activity · 2 events · May 29 → May 31 DatePositionAmountTotal May 29BUYYES75+$1,485$1,485 May 31BUYYES74+$2,049$3,510 Realized— Unrealized−$86 Total Profit−$86 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1722) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

96% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$78,253 on $130.1K capital deployed (avg +60.2%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

96% in profit

NO positions

4% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	73c	$8.4M	100c
AI Consensus	79c	—	✓ matched

Back to Market Radar