AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (5 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 42c |
16%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 12c |
72%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 22c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 30c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 39c |
61%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 24c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money entered NO at 57c and has been validated as price drifted to 61c, signaling the tracked wallet read this as a low-probability novelty claim from the outset. The absence of any YES accumulation combined with a profitable NO anchor points to continued downward pressure on YES, with fair value likely closer to 35c than 40c absent a concrete government announcement.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x9981..c4 | MM | NO | $1.3K | -10% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,254 on $1.3K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 42c | $564.1K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 24c | — | × missed |