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Scoreboards

Every AI verdict the Radar publishes is graded once the market resolves: BUY YES or BUY NO, frozen before the close, against the actual outcome, with $1,000 staked on each call and held to resolution. A HOLD verdict is not a call. Markets without a verdict are never listed: there was no call to grade. Misses are listed with the hits, month by month.

257 / 361
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (71%) · 199 HOLD, no entry
+0.3%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (361 calls, +$1,215 total)

133 BUY verdicts are open on live markets and enter the record as they resolve.

October 2026

32 / 40
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (80%) · 19 HOLD, no entry
-0.3%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (40 calls, −$119 total)

Weekly pages: 2026-W41

Market
Outcome
AI verdict
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31?2026-10-16
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 75¢ · −$1,000
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?2026-10-16
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 89¢ · +$124
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?2026-10-16
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 87¢ · +$149
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 15?2026-10-16
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?2026-10-16
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 87¢ · +$149
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?2026-10-16
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 93¢ · +$75
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?2026-10-16
YES
HOLD · no entry
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?2026-10-15
YES
HOLD · no entry
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?2026-10-15
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 80¢ · +$250
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?2026-10-12
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?2026-10-09
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 62¢ · +$613
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?2026-10-09
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 80¢ · +$250
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?2026-10-09
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?2026-10-09
NO
HOLD · no entry
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?2026-10-08
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-07-16?2026-10-07
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 61¢ · −$1,000
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?2026-10-06
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 70¢ · +$429
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?2026-10-06
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 70¢ · +$429
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?2026-10-06
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 93¢ · +$75
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?2026-10-06
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 75¢ · +$333
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?2026-10-06
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 50¢ · −$1,000
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?2026-10-06
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 51¢ · −$1,000
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?2026-10-06
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?2026-10-05
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 19¢ · −$1,000
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?2026-10-05
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian pres2026-10-05
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 86¢ · −$1,000
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?2026-10-05
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidentia2026-10-05
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 74¢ · −$1,000
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?2026-10-05
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 71¢ · −$1,000
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?2026-10-05
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?2026-10-05
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?2026-10-05
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?2026-10-04
NO
HOLD · no entry
Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?2026-10-02
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 93¢ · +$75
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?2026-10-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?2026-10-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 60¢ · +$667
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 86¢ · +$163
Next White House Press Secretary announced by September 30, 2026?2026-10-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 64¢ · +$562
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 84¢ · +$190
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?2026-10-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 91¢ · +$99
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 88¢ · +$136
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?2026-10-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 50¢ · +$1,000
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 74¢ · +$351
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 20262026-10-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 93¢ · +$75
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 81¢ · +$235
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 85¢ · +$176
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in September?2026-10-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will XRP reach $1.80 in September?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 84¢ · +$190
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 87¢ · +$149
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?2026-10-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 85¢ · +$176

September 2026

40 / 48
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (83%) · 19 HOLD, no entry
+24.5%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (48 calls, +$11,754 total)

Weekly pages: 2026-W40 2026-W39 2026-W38 2026-W37

Market
Outcome
AI verdict
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?2026-09-30
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 91¢ · +$99
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?2026-09-30
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 89¢ · +$124
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?2026-09-30
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 93¢ · +$75
Trump renames AI by September 30?2026-09-29
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 71¢ · −$1,000
Trump renames AI by December 31?2026-09-29
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 70¢ · +$429
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?2026-09-27
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 87¢ · +$149
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?2026-09-27
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?2026-09-24
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?2026-09-24
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?2026-09-24
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?2026-09-24
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 10¢ · −$1,000
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?2026-09-24
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?2026-09-22
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 89¢ · +$124
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?2026-09-22
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 81¢ · +$235
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?2026-09-22
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 22¢ · +$3,545
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?2026-09-22
YES
HOLD · no entry
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?2026-09-22
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 44¢ · −$1,000
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?2026-09-22
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 61¢ · −$1,000
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?2026-09-22
YES
HOLD · no entry
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?2026-09-22
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 88¢ · +$136
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?2026-09-22
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 86¢ · +$163
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?2026-09-21
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 65¢ · +$538
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?2026-09-21
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?2026-09-20
YES
HOLD · no entry
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?2026-09-17
YES
HOLD · no entry
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?2026-09-17
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 78¢ · +$282
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?2026-09-16
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 63¢ · −$1,000
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?2026-09-16
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 60¢ · +$667
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?2026-09-16
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 53¢ · −$1,000
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?2026-09-16
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 46¢ · +$1,174
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?2026-09-16
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 59¢ · −$1,000
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?2026-09-16
NO
HOLD · no entry
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?2026-09-16
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 47¢ · +$1,128
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?2026-09-16
YES
HOLD · no entry
Fed rate hike in 2026?2026-09-16
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 15¢ · +$5,667
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?2026-09-15
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 86¢ · +$163
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?2026-09-15
YES
HOLD · no entry
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?2026-09-15
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?2026-09-14
YES
HOLD · no entry
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?2026-09-10
NO
HOLD · no entry
LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?2026-09-10
YES
HOLD · no entry
LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?2026-09-10
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 48¢ · −$1,000
LAPTOP FDV above $350M one day after launch?2026-09-10
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 93¢ · +$75
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?2026-09-10
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 91¢ · +$99
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?2026-09-09
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?2026-09-09
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 78¢ · +$282
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?2026-09-09
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 73¢ · +$370
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?2026-09-08
NO
HOLD · no entry
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?2026-09-04
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 900m and 920m by Au2026-09-02
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 86¢ · +$163
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 312026-09-01
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 84¢ · +$190
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 71¢ · +$408
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by Au2026-09-01
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 69¢ · +$449
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?2026-09-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 87¢ · +$149
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 72¢ · +$389
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 88¢ · +$136
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 88¢ · +$136
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 60¢ · +$667
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 73¢ · +$370
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 90¢ · +$111
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?2026-09-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 91¢ · +$99
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?2026-09-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205

August 2026

18 / 24
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (75%) · 9 HOLD, no entry
+4.1%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (24 calls, +$986 total)

Weekly pages: 2026-W36 2026-W35 2026-W34 2026-W33 2026-W32

Market
Outcome
AI verdict
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?2026-08-31
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 91¢ · +$99
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?2026-08-31
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 77¢ · +$299
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?2026-08-30
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 73¢ · −$1,000
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?2026-08-30
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 64¢ · −$1,000
US ceasefire against Iran continues through October 31?2026-08-30
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 64¢ · −$1,000
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 15, 2026?2026-08-30
YES
HOLD · no entry
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?2026-08-30
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 61¢ · −$1,000
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?2026-08-28
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?2026-08-26
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 73¢ · +$370
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?2026-08-25
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?2026-08-24
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 71¢ · −$1,000
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?2026-08-21
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 42¢ · +$1,381
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?2026-08-19
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?2026-08-19
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 89¢ · +$124
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?2026-08-19
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?2026-08-19
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 80¢ · +$250
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?2026-08-14
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 22¢ · −$1,000
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?2026-08-14
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?2026-08-12
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 72¢ · +$389
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?2026-08-12
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 54¢ · +$852
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?2026-08-05
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?2026-08-05
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 63¢ · +$587
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?2026-08-05
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 88¢ · +$136
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?2026-08-04
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 54¢ · +$852
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?2026-08-03
YES
HOLD · no entry
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?2026-08-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?2026-08-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 56¢ · +$786
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?2026-08-01
INVALID
NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?2026-08-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?2026-08-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 85¢ · +$176
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?2026-08-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?2026-08-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?2026-08-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?2026-08-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 82¢ · +$220

July 2026

43 / 53
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (81%) · 36 HOLD, no entry
+9.6%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (53 calls, +$5,079 total)

Weekly pages: 2026-W31 2026-W30 2026-W29 2026-W28

Market
Outcome
AI verdict
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?2026-07-31
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 85¢ · +$176
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?2026-07-29
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?2026-07-29
NO
HOLD · no entry
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?2026-07-29
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?2026-07-29
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 79¢ · +$266
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?2026-07-29
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 79¢ · +$266
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?2026-07-29
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 78¢ · +$282
Will Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?2026-07-27
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 76¢ · +$316
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?2026-07-27
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 86¢ · +$163
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?2026-07-27
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?2026-07-27
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 48¢ · −$1,000
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?2026-07-20
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 77¢ · −$1,000
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?2026-07-20
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 45¢ · −$1,000
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2026-07-20
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2026-07-20
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 17¢ · +$4,882
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score?2026-07-20
NO
HOLD · no entry
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?2026-07-18
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?2026-07-16
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?2026-07-16
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 79¢ · +$266
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2026-07-16
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2026-07-15
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 17¢ · −$1,000
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?2026-07-13
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 77¢ · −$1,000
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?2026-07-13
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 53¢ · −$1,000
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026?2026-07-12
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026?2026-07-12
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 73¢ · +$370
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?2026-07-12
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 84¢ · +$190
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?2026-07-07
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?2026-07-07
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2026-07-07
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?2026-07-06
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?2026-07-06
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 49¢ · +$1,041
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2026-07-06
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 91¢ · +$99
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?2026-07-04
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 32¢ · −$1,000
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?2026-07-04
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 93¢ · +$75
Kurds declare independence from Iran?2026-07-02
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?2026-07-02
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 66¢ · +$515
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?2026-07-02
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 82¢ · +$220
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?2026-07-02
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 91¢ · +$99
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?2026-07-01
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 93¢ · +$75
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30?2026-07-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 87¢ · +$149
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?2026-07-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 67¢ · +$493
Ebola case in the US by June 30?2026-07-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 77¢ · +$299
Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok?2026-07-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?2026-07-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?2026-07-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 44¢ · −$1,000
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?2026-07-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?2026-07-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?2026-07-01
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June?2026-07-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June?2026-07-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 89¢ · +$124
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June?2026-07-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?2026-07-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 86¢ · +$163
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?2026-07-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?2026-07-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?2026-07-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 69¢ · +$449
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?2026-07-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?2026-07-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 85¢ · +$176
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?2026-07-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?2026-07-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?2026-07-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?2026-07-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 47¢ · −$1,000
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?2026-07-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?2026-07-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 91¢ · +$99
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?2026-07-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30?2026-07-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?2026-07-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 86¢ · +$163
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?2026-07-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 88¢ · +$136
Kash Patel out by June 30?2026-07-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 62¢ · +$613
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?2026-07-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?2026-07-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?2026-07-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 89¢ · +$124
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?2026-07-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 56¢ · −$1,000
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?2026-07-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 86¢ · +$163
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?2026-07-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Iran leadership change by June 30?2026-07-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?2026-07-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Trump out as President by June 30?2026-07-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Netanyahu out by June 30?2026-07-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?2026-07-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?2026-07-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 86¢ · +$163
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?2026-07-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
Epstein client list released by June 30?2026-07-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 84¢ · +$190
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?2026-07-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 86¢ · +$163
Iran coup attempt by June 30?2026-07-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 91¢ · +$99
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?2026-07-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 91¢ · +$99
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?2026-07-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?2026-07-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 61¢ · +$639
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?2026-07-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 81¢ · +$235
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?2026-07-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 73¢ · +$370

June 2026

44 / 69
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (64%) · 41 HOLD, no entry
+2.9%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (69 calls, +$2,031 total)

Weekly pages: 2026-W27 2026-W26 2026-W25 2026-W24 2026-W23

Market
Outcome
AI verdict
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?2026-06-30
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 89¢ · +$124
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?2026-06-30
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2026-06-30
NO
HOLD · no entry
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?2026-06-26
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?2026-06-25
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2026-06-25
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 42¢ · −$1,000
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?2026-06-24
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?2026-06-24
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?2026-06-24
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 78¢ · +$282
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?2026-06-24
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 92¢ · −$1,000
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?2026-06-23
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?2026-06-22
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?2026-06-22
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 82¢ · −$1,000
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?2026-06-21
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 71¢ · +$408
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?2026-06-21
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?2026-06-21
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?2026-06-21
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 92¢ · −$1,000
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?2026-06-20
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 35¢ · −$1,000
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?2026-06-20
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?2026-06-20
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 40¢ · −$1,000
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?2026-06-19
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 53¢ · −$1,000
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?2026-06-18
YES
HOLD · no entry
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?2026-06-18
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 77¢ · +$299
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?2026-06-18
YES
HOLD · no entry
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?2026-06-18
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 56¢ · +$786
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?2026-06-18
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 71¢ · +$408
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?2026-06-18
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 52¢ · −$1,000
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?2026-06-17
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?2026-06-17
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 9¢ · −$1,000
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?2026-06-17
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 89¢ · +$124
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?2026-06-17
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 23¢ · +$3,348
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?2026-06-17
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 43¢ · −$1,000
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 202026-06-16
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 58¢ · +$724
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?2026-06-16
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?2026-06-15
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?2026-06-15
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 76¢ · −$1,000
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?2026-06-15
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 45¢ · +$1,222
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?2026-06-15
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 59¢ · +$695
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?2026-06-15
YES
HOLD · no entry
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?2026-06-15
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?2026-06-15
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 23¢ · −$1,000
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has bee2026-06-15
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 35¢ · −$1,000
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?2026-06-15
YES
HOLD · no entry
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?2026-06-15
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?2026-06-14
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?2026-06-14
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 15¢ · −$1,000
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?2026-06-14
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 49¢ · +$1,041
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?2026-06-14
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 31¢ · −$1,000
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?2026-06-13
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 51¢ · −$1,000
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?2026-06-12
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 74¢ · +$351
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?2026-06-11
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 84¢ · +$190
ECB rate hike in 2026?2026-06-11
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?2026-06-10
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 85¢ · +$176
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?2026-06-10
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?2026-06-10
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?2026-06-10
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 93¢ · +$75
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has bee2026-06-08
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 52¢ · +$923
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?2026-06-08
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 68¢ · +$471
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?2026-06-08
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 12¢ · −$1,000
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?2026-06-07
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 93¢ · −$1,000
Ethereum flipped in 2026?2026-06-05
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 64¢ · −$1,000
Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorney General by June 32026-06-04
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by June 30?2026-06-04
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election2026-06-04
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 10¢ · +$9,000
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election2026-06-04
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?2026-06-04
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?2026-06-04
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 33¢ · −$1,000
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?2026-06-04
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?2026-06-04
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 70¢ · +$429
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?2026-06-04
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 88¢ · +$136
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open?2026-06-03
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open?2026-06-03
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 26¢ · −$1,000
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?2026-06-03
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 81¢ · +$235
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?2026-06-03
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?2026-06-02
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 89¢ · +$124
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?2026-06-02
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 70¢ · +$429
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?2026-06-02
NO
HOLD · no entry
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?2026-06-02
YES
HOLD · no entry
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?2026-06-01
YES
HOLD · no entry
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?2026-06-01
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 75¢ · −$1,000
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?2026-06-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 57¢ · +$754
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?2026-06-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 40¢ · −$1,000
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?2026-06-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 38¢ · −$1,000
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?2026-06-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?2026-06-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 18¢ · −$1,000
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?2026-06-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?2026-06-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?2026-06-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 86¢ · +$163
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?2026-06-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 90¢ · +$111
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?2026-06-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Iran leadership change by May 31?2026-06-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 88¢ · +$136
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?2026-06-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 74¢ · +$351
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?2026-06-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 85¢ · +$176
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?2026-06-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 72¢ · +$389
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?2026-06-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 54¢ · +$852
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?2026-06-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?2026-06-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?2026-06-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?2026-06-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 93¢ · +$75
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?2026-06-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 86¢ · +$163
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?2026-06-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?2026-06-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 87¢ · +$149
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?2026-06-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 89¢ · +$124
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?2026-06-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?2026-06-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 87¢ · +$149
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?2026-06-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?2026-06-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has bee2026-06-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 65¢ · +$538
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?2026-06-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 90¢ · +$111
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?2026-06-01
NO
HOLD · no entry

May 2026

70 / 111
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (63%) · 58 HOLD, no entry
-13.2%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (111 calls, −$14,619 total)

Weekly pages: 2026-W22 2026-W21 2026-W20 2026-W19

Market
Outcome
AI verdict
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?2026-05-31
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League?2026-05-31
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 62¢ · −$1,000
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?2026-05-31
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 56¢ · −$1,000
Will Iga Świątek win the 2026 Women’s French Open?2026-05-31
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 28¢ · −$1,000
Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?2026-05-31
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?2026-05-31
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?2026-05-31
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 42¢ · −$1,000
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?2026-05-31
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 77¢ · +$299
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?2026-05-30
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 58¢ · +$724
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?2026-05-30
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?2026-05-30
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 26¢ · +$2,846
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?2026-05-30
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 30¢ · −$1,000
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference?2026-05-30
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 69¢ · +$449
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?2026-05-30
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?2026-05-30
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 13¢ · −$1,000
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?2026-05-29
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 90¢ · +$111
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?2026-05-29
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 77¢ · +$299
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?2026-05-29
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 64¢ · +$562
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?2026-05-29
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 80¢ · +$250
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?2026-05-29
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 60¢ · +$667
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?2026-05-29
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 84¢ · −$1,000
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open?2026-05-28
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 37¢ · −$1,000
Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League?2026-05-28
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 77¢ · +$299
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s French Open?2026-05-28
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference?2026-05-27
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 89¢ · +$124
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference?2026-05-27
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 46¢ · −$1,000
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?2026-05-27
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 39¢ · −$1,000
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?2026-05-27
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 61¢ · +$639
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?2026-05-27
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?2026-05-27
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 74¢ · +$351
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?2026-05-27
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 22¢ · −$1,000
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?2026-05-27
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 89¢ · +$124
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?2026-05-27
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 41¢ · +$1,439
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?2026-05-27
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 73¢ · +$370
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 102m?2026-05-27
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?2026-05-26
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 82¢ · +$220
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?2026-05-26
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?2026-05-24
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?2026-05-24
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?2026-05-24
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 47¢ · +$1,128
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?2026-05-24
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 37¢ · −$1,000
Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League?2026-05-24
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24?2026-05-24
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 28¢ · +$2,571
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24?2026-05-24
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open?2026-05-24
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open?2026-05-23
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 35¢ · −$1,000
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has bee2026-05-23
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 89¢ · +$124
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?2026-05-23
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k?2026-05-22
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 93¢ · +$75
Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?2026-05-22
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 76¢ · −$1,000
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?2026-05-22
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 89¢ · +$124
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?2026-05-20
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 74¢ · −$1,000
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?2026-05-20
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205
Will Mike Thurmond win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?2026-05-20
NO
HOLD · no entry
Chirayu Rana sued?2026-05-20
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 32¢ · −$1,000
Will Putin visit China by May 31?2026-05-20
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 91¢ · +$99
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?2026-05-20
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 88¢ · +$136
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?2026-05-20
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 77¢ · −$1,000
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?2026-05-20
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?2026-05-20
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 60¢ · +$667
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?2026-05-20
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 60¢ · +$667
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?2026-05-19
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 81¢ · +$235
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?2026-05-19
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Eastern Conference?2026-05-19
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?2026-05-18
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 6¢ · −$1,000
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-17?2026-05-18
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 70¢ · −$1,000
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?2026-05-18
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 45¢ · +$1,222
Will France win Eurovision 2026?2026-05-17
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?2026-05-17
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 63¢ · +$587
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?2026-05-17
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?2026-05-17
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?2026-05-17
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?2026-05-17
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 70¢ · +$429
Will Denmark be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?2026-05-17
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16?2026-05-16
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 83¢ · +$205
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has bee2026-05-16
NO
HOLD · no entry
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?2026-05-16
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 74¢ · +$351
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?2026-05-16
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 85¢ · +$176
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?2026-05-16
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?2026-05-16
NO
HOLD · no entry
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?2026-05-16
YES
HOLD · no entry
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?2026-05-16
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 38¢ · −$1,000
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?2026-05-15
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the Western Conference?2026-05-15
NO
HOLD · no entry
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?2026-05-15
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 90¢ · +$111
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?2026-05-14
YES
HOLD · no entry
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?2026-05-14
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 91¢ · +$99
Will the Minnesota Wild win the Western Conference?2026-05-14
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?2026-05-14
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 90¢ · +$111
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?2026-05-14
YES
HOLD · no entry
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?2026-05-14
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?2026-05-14
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026?2026-05-13
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 91¢ · +$99
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?2026-05-12
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 79¢ · +$266
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?2026-05-12
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?2026-05-12
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 38¢ · −$1,000
Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?2026-05-12
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 73¢ · −$1,000
Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?2026-05-12
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 65¢ · +$538
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?2026-05-12
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 91¢ · +$99
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?2026-05-12
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 91¢ · +$99
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?2026-05-10
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 76¢ · +$316
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?2026-05-10
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 10¢ · −$1,000
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-10?2026-05-10
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 68¢ · +$471
Will Leeds be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?2026-05-10
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 81¢ · +$235
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?2026-05-09
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 71¢ · −$1,000
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?2026-05-09
YES
HOLD · no entry
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?2026-05-09
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 91¢ · −$1,000
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?2026-05-09
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 84¢ · +$190
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has bee2026-05-09
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?2026-05-06
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 57¢ · −$1,000
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?2026-05-06
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?2026-05-06
NO
HOLD · no entry
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?2026-05-06
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 82¢ · +$220
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?2026-05-06
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 7¢ · −$1,000
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?2026-05-05
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 82¢ · +$220
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?2026-05-05
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 86¢ · +$163
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?2026-05-04
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 7¢ · −$1,000
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?2026-05-04
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 86¢ · +$163
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Madrid Open?2026-05-03
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?2026-05-03
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 12¢ · −$1,000
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?2026-05-03
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?2026-05-03
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 28¢ · −$1,000
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?2026-05-02
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will the Boston Bruins win the Eastern Conference?2026-05-02
NO
HOLD · no entry
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?2026-05-01
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 30¢ · −$1,000
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?2026-05-01
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 54¢ · +$852
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?2026-05-01
YES
HOLD · no entry
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?2026-05-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 5¢ · −$1,000
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Western Conference?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 91¢ · +$99
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 89¢ · +$124
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has bee2026-05-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 60¢ · −$1,000
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 78¢ · +$282
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 76¢ · +$316
Kash Patel out by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 92¢ · +$87
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 90¢ · +$111
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?2026-05-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 6¢ · −$1,000
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?2026-05-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 76¢ · −$1,000
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 39¢ · −$1,000
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 88¢ · +$136
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?2026-05-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 38¢ · −$1,000
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 71¢ · +$408
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 76¢ · +$316
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?2026-05-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 29¢ · −$1,000
Iran leadership change by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 86¢ · +$163
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 76¢ · −$1,000
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 17¢ · −$1,000
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 93¢ · +$75
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?2026-05-01
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 46¢ · −$1,000
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 93¢ · +$75
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?2026-05-01
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 86¢ · +$163
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?2026-05-01
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 90¢ · +$111
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?2026-05-01
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 84¢ · +$190

April 2026

10 / 16
BUY verdicts hit the outcome (62%) · 17 HOLD, no entry
-24.4%
ROI with $1,000 on each call, held to resolution (16 calls, −$3,896 total)

Weekly pages: 2026-W18 2026-W17 2026-W16

Market
Outcome
AI verdict
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?2026-04-30
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 92¢ · +$87
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?2026-04-30
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?2026-04-30
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?2026-04-30
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?2026-04-30
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?2026-04-30
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 87¢ · −$1,000
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?2026-04-30
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 83¢ · +$205
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?2026-04-30
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 34¢ · −$1,000
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?2026-04-29
NO
HOLD · no entry
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?2026-04-28
YES
HOLD · no entry
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?2026-04-28
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 8¢ · −$1,000
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?2026-04-28
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 47¢ · −$1,000
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?2026-04-28
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 53¢ · +$887
Will the Ottawa Senators win the Eastern Conference?2026-04-26
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?2026-04-25
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?2026-04-25
YES
HOLD · no entry
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?2026-04-25
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 91¢ · +$99
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?2026-04-25
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has bee2026-04-24
NO
HOLD · no entry
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?2026-04-23
NO
HOLD · no entry
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?2026-04-23
NO
YES ×BUY YES @ 68¢ · −$1,000
Will Keldon Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?2026-04-23
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 88¢ · +$136
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?2026-04-23
YES
NO ×BUY NO @ 85¢ · −$1,000
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?2026-04-22
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 80¢ · +$250
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?2026-04-22
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 84¢ · +$190
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?2026-04-21
YES
YES ✓BUY YES @ 91¢ · +$99
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has bee2026-04-20
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?2026-04-19
YES
HOLD · no entry
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?2026-04-19
NO
HOLD · no entry
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026?2026-04-19
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 93¢ · +$75
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?2026-04-16
YES
HOLD · no entry
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Pacific Division?2026-04-16
NO
HOLD · no entry
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?2026-04-15
NO
NO ✓BUY NO @ 93¢ · +$75
Method. Every call is an AI verdict frozen before the market closed; BUY is graded with $1,000 held to resolution, HOLD is shown and never graded or staked. 821 of the 1382 resolved markets had no verdict on file and are counted, not listed. The tracked wallets' positions are an input to the verdict, not a call: each wallet's own record is on its wallet page. Nothing is back-filled from later data.