Weekly scoreboards

Each Monday we grade every tracked Polymarket market that resolved in the previous week: the side the tracked wallets held before the close, and the AI verdict frozen before resolution, against the actual outcome. Misses are listed with the hits.

32 / 58
Smart money: calls matched the outcome (55%)
−$327
$100 on each smart-money call, held to resolution (58 calls, -5.6% per call)
10 / 12
AI verdict: calls matched the outcome (83%)
+$394
$100 on each AI-verdict call, held to resolution (12 calls, +32.9% per call)
356
markets resolved in total
WeekResolvedSmart moneyAI verdict
2026-W36 · 2026-08-31 – 2026-09-06110 / 00 / 0
2026-W35 · 2026-08-24 – 2026-08-30270 / 00 / 0

Latest graded markets

ResolvedMarketOutcomeSmart moneyAI verdict
2026-07-12Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?NONO ✓NO ✓
2026-06-17Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?YESNO ×not recorded before close
2026-05-27Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?YESNO ×YES ✓
2026-05-15Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?YESNO ×NO ×
2026-04-28No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?YESYES ✓YES ✓
2026-04-28Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?NONO ✓YES ×
2026-04-28Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?YESNO ×YES ✓
2026-04-26Will the Ottawa Senators win the Eastern Conference?NONO ✓NO ✓
2026-04-25Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?YESNO ×YES ✓
2026-04-25Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?NOYES ×not recorded before close
2026-04-25Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?YESYES ✓YES ✓
2026-04-25Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?YESYES ✓YES ✓
2026-04-23Will Keldon Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?YESYES ✓YES ✓
2026-04-21Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?NONO ✓not recorded before close
2026-04-21Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?NOYES ×not recorded before close
2026-04-21Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?YESYES ✓not recorded before close
2026-04-21Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?YESYES ✓not recorded before close
2026-04-20Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?NOYES ×not recorded before close
2026-04-18Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?YESYES ✓not recorded before close
2026-04-18Will the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?NONO ✓not recorded before close
Method. A verdict counts only if it was frozen before the market resolved. The smart-money side is the dominant side of the tracked wallets in the last snapshot before the close. INVALID resolutions and markets without a pre-resolution record are excluded and counted on each weekly page. Nothing is back-filled from later data.