AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 45c |
35%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 22c |
68%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 2c |
95%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 40c |
50%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 41c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is uniformly long YES near current levels, with no NO counter-positioning to signal doubt about another trailer landing before August 31. Tight entries clustered at 37c-38c suggest conviction accumulation into the deadline rather than opportunistic scalping, tilting the directional read toward YES.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | NO | $4.3K | — |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$253 on $4.3K capital deployed (avg +5.8%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $798.7K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 41c | — | ✓ matched |