Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 19%: Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (19% YES).

What’s Happening

Bitcoin's retreat to approximately $71,984 in late December 2025, a 50% drawdown from its peak, has coincided with a notable shift in corporate treasury strategy, yet the probability that another S&P 500 company buys bitcoin by December 31, 2026 remains a contested wager. On-chain data shows whale wallets accumulating during this dip, with exchange reserves hitting multi-year lows, while the 24/7 Wall St. analysis notes that the narrative has moved from speculative asset to corporate treasury diversification. The current market pricing of 19% YES / 81% NO reflects a cautious stance, even as the broader institutional momentum from 2024's ETF approvals and early adopter balance sheets has not fully stalled, with the Fed's rate trajectory in 2026 being the pivotal macro variable for any renewed corporate bid. [24/7 Wall St., Dec 31]

The single largest overhang on the question of whether another S&P 500 company buys bitcoin is the behavior of the sector's pioneer, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), whose preferred share STRC has ballooned to $8.5 billion in nine months with an 11.5% annualized dividend yield. Polymarket data from May 2026 shows the probability of "MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026" surged to roughly 48% after the Q1 earnings call, with over $23 million in volume traded, as the company proposed moving dividend payments from monthly to semi-monthly. This potential supply overhang—if Strategy were to liquidate any of its massive holdings—creates a chilling effect on other S&P 500 boards, as the optics of buying bitcoin while the largest corporate holder is selling would be politically untenable for most CEOs and CFOs. [Investing.com, May 08]

Regulatory clarity has emerged as the double-edged sword for this market, with SEC Chair Atkins testifying before Congress in February 2026 and speculation mounting over a potential "Regulation BTC" framework by December 31, 2026. While Better Markets' satirical scenario of mandating all public companies buy bitcoin is not realistic, the actual regulatory direction is toward explicit accounting standards and custody rules, which could either de-risk corporate adoption or expose fiduciaries to new liabilities. The S&P 500's complete erasure of its 2026 losses in one week by late April, delivering around 12% annualized over the past decade versus Bitcoin's 84% annualized, has created a rotation debate—but technical analysts note that Bitcoin has never had two consecutive losing years since 2014, and every down year has been followed by a recovery of at least 34%. This historical pattern, combined with the current sub-$72,000 price level sitting near key support, suggests the window for a second S&P 500 company to announce a bitcoin purchase remains open but narrowing, with the market's 19% probability reflecting genuine skepticism about board-level risk appetite in a high-rate environment. [Better Markets, Feb 11]

Traded on Polymarket — $134K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 17c YES with $134K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.