Prediction markets put the probability at 40%: US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse. Currently, markets are divided (40% YES, 60% NO).
The US Open first-round men's singles match us open atp: marcos giron vs ignacio buse is scheduled for 1 September 2026 on hard court in New York. It pits 33-year-old American Marcos Giron, currently ranked No. 78, against 22-year-old Peruvian Ignacio Buse, who has climbed to a career-high No. 30 in the world. Giron, a former top-40 player who reached a career high of No. 37 in August 2024, holds one ATP Tour title, while Buse has already won two titles in the 2026 season. Both players are right-handed, and the pre-match line installed Buse as favourite at odds of -133. [Sportytrader, Sep 01]
Buse arrives in strong form, having captured the Winston-Salem Open title the week before the Grand Slam, where he defeated Benjamin Bonzi in the semi-final on 28 August 2026 and Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the quarter-final. The Peruvian's breakthrough season also included a clay-court title in Hamburg in May, where he beat American Tommy Paul in the final, underlining the versatility of his game across surfaces. That run lifted him into the world's top 30 for the first time and marked a rapid ascent for a player contesting only his second US Open main draw. [Racingpost, Aug 31]
Giron, by contrast, has struggled for form entering the tournament, with zero ATP titles in 2026 and an early exit in Washington qualifying in July. His best US Open result remains the second round, reached in 2020, 2021 and 2025, whereas Buse has yet to advance past the first round at Flushing Meadows, falling in the opening round on debut in 2025. The winner of us open atp: marcos giron vs ignacio buse advances to the second round, where a step up in competition awaits. A Buse victory would extend his momentum and confirm his rise, while a Giron upset would rely on the American recovering the level that once carried him inside the top 40. [Tennismajors, Aug 27]
Polymarket prices this at 40c YES with $169K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
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