AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 28c |
44%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 9c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 12c |
65%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 25c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 12c |
80%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 16c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is exclusively positioned NO at 89c entries, with zero YES exposure tracked — a one-sided book betting against strait closure by April 30. This unanimous NO stance from tracked wallets signals high conviction that Houthi disruption stops short of effective closure, aligning with the 12c market-implied probability.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc30c..09 | MM | NO | $1.2K | +6% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$149 on $1.2K capital deployed (avg +12.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $1.7M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 16c | — | ✓ matched |