AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 16c |
68%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 4c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 10c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
92%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 8c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioned exclusively on the NO side at 88-89c, signaling early conviction that WTI would not breach $120 in April — a thesis now validated with crude trading well below threshold and limited time remaining. The complete absence of tracked YES entries indicates no alpha wallet sees asymmetric upside at 8c, treating the residual premium as fair compensation for geopolitical tail risk rather than mispriced opportunity. Directional signal: continued fade toward resolution at zero.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x9981..c4 ★ | MM | NO | $20.9K | +4% | |
| 0xd48a..90 ★ | MM | NO | $3.7K | +5% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$3,191 on $24.6K capital deployed (avg +13.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $6.7M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 8c | — | ✓ matched |