We tracked 6 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 6 market makers are providing $43K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 58c–88c.
Wallet
Category
Side
Amount
P&L
0xa52b..80 ★
MM
NO
$13.4K
-6%
★ Tier-1 Wallet
80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets
This Market
Entered at 87c → now 82c (-6%), $13.4K on NO
Track Record
1y on platform · 1266 trades · crypto specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1266) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35
MM
NO
$10.5K
-2%
This Market
Entered at 83c → now 82c (-2%), $10.5K on NO
Track Record
13d on platform · 1954 trades · geopolitics specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1954) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x44c1..c1
MM
NO
$8.8K
+10%
This Market
Entered at 74c → now 82c (+10%), $8.8K on NO
Track Record
3mo on platform · 1694 trades · other specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1694) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd48a..90 ★
MM
NO
$6.3K
-5%
★ Tier-1 Wallet
80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets
This Market
Entered at 86c → now 82c (-5%), $6.3K on NO
Track Record
5d on platform · 274 trades · other specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (274) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f
MM
NO
$2.1K
+41%
This Market
Entered at 58c → now 82c (+41%), $2.1K on NO
Track Record
21d on platform · 1066 trades · geopolitics specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1066) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x4e25..a7
MM
NO
$1.8K
-7%
This Market
Entered at 88c → now 82c (-7%), $1.8K on NO
Track Record
1mo on platform · 1712 trades · geopolitics specialist
AI Insight
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1712) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
NO wallets entered at 58c–88c. At current price 18c, 33% of NO holders are profitable vs none of the YES holders are profitable. NO side has the profitability advantage.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
0%in profit
NO positions
33%in profit
Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 36 Cents
Significant 36-cent gap: Polymarket at 18c vs Kalshi at 54c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 18c.
What are the current odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April??
As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 18% YES with $8.3M in total volume.
Where can I bet on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April??
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April??
OddsShift tracks 6 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.