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Resolves: Apr 2026 15 days left Volume: $8.3M

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

NO
82c
YES
18c

Prediction markets give a 18% probability to: strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of april?.

Currently at 18%

Traded on Polymarket — $8.3M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $8.3M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 18c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →
Last updated: April 14, 2026, 13:19 UTC
Smart money signal: 6 tracked wallets positioned NO. Backed by $8.3M in trading volume.
PRO Analysis

What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.

STRONG OUR VERDICT
BUY NO 81c

Smart money entered NO at 58c–88c.

+17% TARGET YIELD
49c
95c
100c
81c
Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

6 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 6 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 6 market makers are providing $43K in liquidity, primarily on NO. NO wallets entered between 58c–88c.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0xa52b..80 MMNO$13.4K-6%
0xbacd..35MMNO$10.5K-2%
0x44c1..c1MMNO$8.8K+10%
0xd48a..90 MMNO$6.3K-5%
0x0845..6fMMNO$2.1K+41%
0x4e25..a7MMNO$1.8K-7%
See all 162 tracked wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

33% of NO Positions Are in Profit

NO wallets entered at 58c–88c. At current price 18c, 33% of NO holders are profitable vs none of the YES holders are profitable. NO side has the profitability advantage.

YES positions
0% in profit
NO positions
33% in profit

Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 36 Cents

Significant 36-cent gap: Polymarket at 18c vs Kalshi at 54c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 18c.

PlatformYES PriceVolume
Polymarket18c$8.3M
Kalshi54c
Our Model18c

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April??
As of April 2026, Polymarket prices this at 18% YES with $8.3M in total volume.
Where can I bet on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April??
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April??
OddsShift tracks 6 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.