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Resolved: May 12, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $38.0M

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Resolved · MAY 12
NO
100c
YES
0c
Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (6 of 7 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.
MODERATE RESULT
NO WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.

DIRECTION WRONG
14c
42c
100c
100c
Stop Loss Target Final

7 of 7 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model Said Fair Value estimated fair price of YES Confidence Result
Bayesian Update NO 2c
96%
PIN Model NO 6c
88%
Compound Signal NO 15c
70%
Claude Analysis NO 5c
88%
DeepSeek Quant NO 8c
75%
Grok Contrarian NO 5c
75%
Gemini Flash NO 15c
70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 8c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

7 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money is decisively positioned against normalization, with all 16 tracked wallets clustered on the NO side at premium entries (43c-94c) — indicating high-conviction bets placed when uncertainty was elevated. The absence of any profitable YES wallets suggests informed traders never seriously priced in a return-to-normal scenario, signaling continued tail risk in the Strait through April.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0xde04..37SmartNO$6.2K+2%
0x6bab..92MMNO$37.6K+117%
0xd5cc..a4MMNO$36.8K+21%
0xde7b..4bRetailYES$22.9K-42%
0xa52b..80 +75%MMNO$21.8K+4%
0xd48a..90 RetailNO$15.1K+8%
0xc658..84MMYES$14.7K-93%
0x0c0e..4e MMNO$14.5K+11%
0x12d6..a8MMNO$14.0K0%
0xbacd..35MMYES$12.8K-103%
0x22db..0fRetailNO$11.2K+46%
0x24c8..e1RetailNO$5.0K+5%
0x4e25..a7RetailNO$3.6K+14%
0xeec5..fe RetailNO$2.8K+26%
0x0845..6fRetailNO$1.9K+19%
0x3ff9..89RetailNO$1.1K+17%
See all 87 tracked wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

77% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$34,327 on $222.1K capital deployed (avg +15.5%).

NO positions
77% in profit
YES positions
23% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform Last YES Price Volume Final
Polymarket 6c $38.0M 0c
AI Consensus 8c ✓ matched