AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 45c |
10%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 34c |
32%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 16c |
63%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 22c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 78c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 39c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | YES | $1.0K | -33% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,031 on $1.0K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $2.6M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 39c | — | ✓ matched |