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Resolves: Jan 2027 4 months left Volume: $5.2M

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Q: What are the current odds for 'US strike on Cuba by December 31?'?

As of August 2026, prediction markets price this at 16% YES on Polymarket with $5.2M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'US strike on Cuba by December 31?'?

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'US strike on Cuba by December 31?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 17c YES. 6 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

84c

YES

16c

Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: US strike on Cuba by December 31. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES).

Down from 54% to 16% since 2026-05-31 (-38pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $5.2M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $5.2M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 16c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

On this market: 6/6 models independently agree NO — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.

PRO Analysis

What does smart money think? Get AI verdicts, wallet positioning, signal analysis, and entry targets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 84c

6/6 models agree on NO, fair value 17c vs market 16c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

6 of 6 Models Agree: NO

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH PIN Model	NO	97c	—
MATH Compound Signal	NO	69c	—
AI DeepSeek Quant	NO	88c	78%
AI Grok Contrarian	NO	78c	61%
AI Gemini Flash	NO	83c	85%
AI Kimi Macro	NO	84c	65%

6 of 6 models estimate NO fair value below market (69–97c vs 84c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 83c — market prices it at 84c. 1-point gap supports YES.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

All three tracked wallets are aligned on the NO side, having entered at 52c-61c and ridden the price down to 16c — a textbook status-quo fade of a low-probability geopolitical event. Smart money is signaling continued conviction that no US strike on Cuba materializes before year-end, with no tracked capital defending the YES thesis.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x0845..6f	MM	NO	$11.0K	+52%
This Market Entered at 52c → now 84c (+52%), $11.0K on NO Activity · 21 events · Jan 26 → Jul 03 DatePositionAmountTotal Jan 26BUYNO72+$237$237 Mar 05BUYNO62+$307$511 Mar 09BUYNO47+$1,566$1,949 Mar 10BUYNO55+$179$2,484 Mar 11BUYNO58+$186$2,804 Mar 12BUYNO58+$305$3,110 Mar 14SELLNO64−$621$2,810 Mar 15BUYNO64+$64$2,874 Mar 15SELLNO62−$1,541$1,252 Mar 16BUYNO62+$651$1,899 Mar 17SELLNO58−$818$972 Jun 16BUYNO44+$1,875$2,601 Jun 17BUYNO47+$1,621$4,419 Jun 21BUYNO52+$984$5,873 Jun 22BUYNO54+$561$6,618 Jun 23BUYNO54+$54$6,718 Jun 24BUYNO60+$2,150$9,598 Jun 27BUYNO58+$698$10,036 Jun 29BUYNO56+$394$10,033 Jul 02SELLNO64−$1,600$9,877 Jul 03SELLNO60−$1,243$8,016 Realized+$892 Unrealized+$4,283 Total Profit+$5,175 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1244) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x4337..82	MM	NO	$5.0K	+42%
This Market Entered at 61c → now 84c (+42%), $5.0K on NO Activity · 3 events · Mar 19 → May 29 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 19BUYNO62+$3,005$3,005 Apr 17BUYNO59+$473$3,340 May 29BUYNO46+$98$2,702 Realized— Unrealized+$1,388 Total Profit+$1,388 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1058) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b	MM	YES	$1.7K	-59%
This Market Entered at 41c → now 16c (-59%), $1.7K on YES Activity · 2 events · Apr 15 → May 20 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 15BUYYES39+$2,521$2,520 May 20BUYYES43+$2,056$4,834 Realized— Unrealized−$2,840 Total Profit−$2,840 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1670) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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All NO Positions Are in Profit

Every NO position entered between 52c-61c is now in profit as YES sits at 16c, while the lone YES cohort at 41c is deep underwater and 0% profitable. The steep drop from 41c to 16c confirms sellers have controlled the market with no meaningful bid support emerging on the YES side.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% in profit

Polymarket: 16c YES — $5.2M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 16c with $5.2M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 17c. 1-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	16c	$5.2M
Our Model	17c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for US strike on Cuba by December 31?

As of August 2026, Polymarket prices this at 16% YES with $5.2M in total volume.

Where can I bet on US strike on Cuba by December 31?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about US strike on Cuba by December 31?

OddsShift tracks 3 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for US strike on Cuba by December 31?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 17c YES. 6 models agree on direction.