Prediction markets put the probability at 55%: US strike on Cuba by December 31. Currently, markets are divided (55% YES, 45% NO).
Active market on Polymarket with $2.8M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 52c YES.
Majority of models lean NO, but not unanimous. BUY NO at 52c — models see 20c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 81c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 51c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 92c | 78% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 62c | 65% |
| AI Gemini Flash | ??? | 55c | 60% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 65c | 65% |
4 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (51–92c vs 48c). Claude Analysis leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 68c — market prices it at 48c. 20-point gap supports NO.
Smart money is split 2:1 YES vs NO by count, but YES wallets timed entries 20+ points below current price — a conviction signal that the strike probability was mispriced low. The NO wallet's 61c entry now looks like a fade of escalation that markets have since repriced upward.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde7b..4b | MM | YES | $5.9K | +27% | |
| 0x0845..6f | MM | YES | $3.3K | +29% | |
| 0x4337..82 | MM | NO | $2.8K | -24% |
YES holders entered at 39-41c and sit comfortably profitable at 52c, while the lone NO wallet is underwater from 61c. Profitable YES capital has no pressure to exit, providing a soft floor near entry cost in the high-30s.
Polymarket prices YES at 52c with $2.8M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 32c. Significant 20-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 52c | $2.8M |
| Our Model | 32c | — |