As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” at 24% YES with $12.8M traded. 6 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Iran and Oman are finalizing a Strait of Hormuz shipping deal, yet traders still lean 72% against normal traffic resuming by December 31.
The question of whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 has grown more uncertain through the summer. Market confidence has slid sharply: traders assessed roughly a 60% chance in early August before dropping to 47% by August 10, and a CFTC-regulated board on Kalshi put the odds at just under one-in-three by year-end as of August 26. The same board priced roughly seven-in-ten for a return to normal by mid-2027 and almost nothing before October, even with an Iran-Oman shipping corridor framework under discussion. Iran's deputy foreign minister Abbas Araqchi described the Oman agreement as being in its "final stages," though implementation remained unconfirmed. [Scanx, Aug 10]
Tehran has signaled it is in no rush. Iranian deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi said implementation of the Hormuz understanding reached with Oman "will not move forward automatically," casting it as contingent on commitments Iran says Washington made under a memorandum signed in June and subsequently broke. "Iran is in no hurry to open the Strait of Hormuz," he said, framing the decision as resting with Washington rather than Tehran. Whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 therefore hinges on a diplomatic dispute as much as on the physical clearing of the waterway, which CENTCOM has said U.S. forces have worked to complete. [Alhurra, Aug 31]
On the water, traffic has "ebbed and flowed" rather than stabilizing. Analysts noted that isolated days or weeks of normal flow are unsustainable if achieved only through coordinated military effort, and that shippers remain reluctant to transit while vessels face the threat of attack. That reluctance is central to whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31, as sustained commercial confidence, not one-off flows, defines a genuine reopening. [CNN Business, Aug 12]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 16c vs market 22c. BUY NO at 22c — models see 6c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 92c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 77c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 85c | 68% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 84c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 72% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 80c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 78% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value above market (77–92c vs 78c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 84c — market prices it at 78c. 6-point gap supports NO.
Smart money is decisively positioned on NO, with entries spanning 17c to 60c indicating accumulation across a wide range as the market repriced lower. The 70c YES entries look like stale or momentum-chasing positions that failed to exit, not informed conviction. This distribution signals that tracked wallets expect Strait of Hormuz traffic to remain disrupted or below normal through December 31, and they are unlikely to cover unless the price approaches their entry levels.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x12d6..a8 | Smart | NO | $9.2K | +194% | |
| 0xb8e6..67 | Smart | NO | $3.1K | +324% | |
| 0x2e0b..70 | MM | NO | $123.2K | +28% | |
| 0x0c0e..4e | MM | NO | $43.9K | +23% | |
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $12.2K | +51% | |
| 0xcaab..dd | Retail | YES | $2.7K | -69% |
Every tracked YES entry (70c) is underwater against the current 22c mark, while all NO entries (17c-60c) sit in profit, creating a one-sided P&L picture that reinforces downside pressure. The absence of any profitable YES position removes a natural bid, so rallies toward the 70c entry zone are likely to be sold into by trapped longs. With NO holders comfortably green, the path of least resistance remains lower, and the 22c price reflects residual tail risk rather than genuine support.
Significant 30-cent gap: Polymarket at 24c vs Kalshi at 54c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 16c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 24c | $12.8M |
| Kalshi | 54c | — |
| Our Model | 16c | — |