Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

As of November 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” at 10% YES with $17.5M traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.

The Strait of Hormuz attacks have reduced maritime traffic and pushed oil prices higher, with prediction odds now at 10% YES for normal traffic by December 31.

What’s Happening

The probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 has collapsed to 10% YES, down from more than 50% as recently as July 4, when traders on Kalshi placed better-than-even odds on normalization by October 1. Contracts resolve against a specific benchmark: IMF PortWatch must report a seven-day average of at least 60 ship transits per day before year-end for the market to settle YES. The sharp repricing reflects a widening gap between partial recovery in vessel flows and the full normalization the contract requires. [CNBC, Jul 08]

Diplomatic efforts have yet to produce a durable reopening mechanism. On October 28, Iran said the strait could open within four to five days if the United States lifted its blockade, but a broader Tehran session involving Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, and Pakistan ended with a joint communiqué pledging continued dialogue and no agreed ceasefire or reopening mechanism. Brent crude traded at $114.68 that day, roughly 61% above its pre-crisis baseline of about $72. Prediction markets placed full traffic normalization at 12% probability by December 31 at that point. [Houseofsaud, Oct 28]

Flows have improved, but analysts caution that higher transits should not be mistaken for normalization. Traffic through the strait has continued to recover even as attacks on commercial shipping have risen sharply and freight costs have climbed rapidly, with OPEC holding December output steady. Rystad Energy's base case envisions a protracted stalemate followed by gradual improvement, with exports recovering early next year and converging on a full return to normal during 2027 — a timeline that leaves little room for the Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 contract to resolve YES. [Ajot, Nov 03]

Traded on Polymarket — $17.5M Volume