Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 78% YES on Polymarket with $62K in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?'?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

YES

78c

22c

Prediction markets give a 78% probability to: strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by december 31?.

Currently at 78%

Traded on Polymarket — $62K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($62K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 78c YES.

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OddsShift analysis: 5 AI models + 1 tracked wallets. Track record: 12/12 correct directional calls across 12 resolved markets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 22c

Smart money entered NO at 24c.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 24c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x0845..6f	MM	NO	$1.5K	-6%
This Market Entered at 24c → now 22c (-6%), $1.5K on NO Activity · 1 event · May 13 DatePositionAmountTotal May 13BUYNO24+$1,581$1,581 Realized— Unrealized−$99 Total Profit−$99 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1084) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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No Positions Are Currently in Profit

NO wallets entered at 24c. At current price 78c, none of the NO holders are profitable vs none of the YES holders are profitable. Both sides have similar profitability — no structural edge.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

0% in profit

Polymarket and Kalshi Disagree by 24 Cents

Significant 24-cent gap: Polymarket at 78c vs Kalshi at 54c. Polymarket traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 78c.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	78c	$62K
Kalshi	54c	—
Our Model	78c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 78% YES with $62K in total volume.

Where can I bet on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.