Prediction markets put the probability at 86%: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (86% YES).
Active market on Polymarket with $3.1M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 87c YES.
Smart money wallets positioned NO, but 3/5 models estimate YES. Signals conflict — waiting for consolidation.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | YES | 64c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 65c | 65% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 75c | 70% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 81c | 70% |
3 of 5 models estimate YES fair value below market (64–98c vs 83c). Kimi Macro leads with 70% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 81c — market prices it at 83c. 2-point gap supports NO.
Despite the dominant_side flag pointing NO, the only profitable book is on YES — entries at 77c show smart money accumulated above fair-value baseline and was rewarded. The 23c NO entries look like early contrarian bets that mistimed the de-escalation; current positioning signals continued normalization through year-end.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xcaab..dd | MM | YES | $8.3K | +4% | |
| 0x12d6..a8 | MM | NO | $1.6K | -49% |
YES holders sit on a 6c gain from 77c entries while NO holders are 60c underwater from 23c entries, a stark asymmetric P&L. Profitable YES capital has no incentive to exit, while NO holders face deep losses with limited recovery path at 83c, reinforcing upward price support.
Significant 33-cent gap: Polymarket at 87c vs Kalshi at 54c. Polymarket traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 81c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 87c | $3.1M |
| Kalshi | 54c | — |
| Our Model | 81c | — |