As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” at 26% YES with $10.4M traded. 6 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Iran and Oman are finalizing a Strait of Hormuz shipping deal, yet traders still lean 72% against normal traffic resuming by December 31.
The question of whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 has grown more uncertain through the summer. Market confidence has slid sharply: traders assessed roughly a 60% chance in early August before dropping to 47% by August 10, and a CFTC-regulated board on Kalshi put the odds at just under one-in-three by year-end as of August 26. The same board priced roughly seven-in-ten for a return to normal by mid-2027 and almost nothing before October, even with an Iran-Oman shipping corridor framework under discussion. Iran's deputy foreign minister Abbas Araqchi described the Oman agreement as being in its "final stages," though implementation remained unconfirmed. [Scanx, Aug 10]
Tehran has signaled it is in no rush. Iranian deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi said implementation of the Hormuz understanding reached with Oman "will not move forward automatically," casting it as contingent on commitments Iran says Washington made under a memorandum signed in June and subsequently broke. "Iran is in no hurry to open the Strait of Hormuz," he said, framing the decision as resting with Washington rather than Tehran. Whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 therefore hinges on a diplomatic dispute as much as on the physical clearing of the waterway, which CENTCOM has said U.S. forces have worked to complete. [Alhurra, Aug 31]
On the water, traffic has "ebbed and flowed" rather than stabilizing. Analysts noted that isolated days or weeks of normal flow are unsustainable if achieved only through coordinated military effort, and that shippers remain reluctant to transit while vessels face the threat of attack. That reluctance is central to whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31, as sustained commercial confidence, not one-off flows, defines a genuine reopening. [CNN Business, Aug 12]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo5/6 models agree on NO, fair value 18c vs market 28c. BUY NO at 28c — models see 10c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 90c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 74c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 85c | 78% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 82c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 42c | 55% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 78c | 82% |
5 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (74–90c vs 72c). Gemini Flash leads with 82% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 82c — market prices it at 72c. 10-point gap supports NO.
Smart money is overwhelmingly positioned on NO, with entries as low as 17c, suggesting early conviction that traffic normalization will not occur by year-end. The absence of any YES entries above 70c indicates no credible bullish bets, while the clustering of NO entries across a wide range (17c-60c) shows accumulation at multiple price points. This positioning signals that informed traders expect continued disruption, and the lack of high-conviction YES buyers implies limited upward pressure on the YES side.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x12d6..a8 | Smart | NO | $8.9K | +183% | |
| 0xb8e6..67 | Smart | NO | $3.0K | +307% | |
| 0x2e0b..70 | MM | NO | $118.4K | +23% | |
| 0x0c0e..4e | MM | NO | $49.2K | +33% | |
| 0x0845..6f | MM | NO | $11.2K | +46% | |
| 0xcaab..dd | Retail | YES | $3.1K | -67% |
All tracked NO positions are in profit, with entries ranging from 17c to 60c against a current price of 28c, indicating strong favorable movement for NO holders. Zero YES positions are profitable, as all YES entries were at 70c, leaving those traders deeply underwater and unlikely to add or defend. This profit asymmetry suggests NO holders have no incentive to sell at current levels, providing downside support for NO and keeping YES price suppressed.
Significant 28-cent gap: Polymarket at 26c vs Kalshi at 54c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 18c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 26c | $10.4M |
| Kalshi | 54c | — |
| Our Model | 18c | — |