AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 6c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
82%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 18c |
62%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 8c |
90%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
78%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
All three tracked wallets are positioned on the NO side, entering between 90c and 93c, signaling strong conviction that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will remain open through September 30. No tracked wallet holds a YES position, and the absence of YES entries above 21c suggests smart money sees closure as a tail risk. Their collective positioning reinforces the bearish YES case and supports NO pricing near 94c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x12d6..a8 | Smart | NO | $1.4K | +6% | |
| 0x162f..8d | MM | NO | $7.6K | +2% | |
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | YES | $1.5K | -97% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$754 on $10.5K capital deployed (avg -7.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $4.2M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |