AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 92c |
84%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 69c |
38%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 82c |
65%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 80c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 78c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 84c |
80%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 81c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money established YES at 80c, signaling confidence in a Bayern win without chasing into stretched pricing. The 4-point gap between entry and current 84c suggests the position was built before market consensus tightened, consistent with a directional read on Bayern's matchday edge rather than late momentum following.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x507e..ae | Retail | YES | $10.0K | +4% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$2,505 on $10.0K capital deployed (avg +25.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 84c | $936.4K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 81c | — | ✓ matched |