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Resolved: Jun 02, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $34.6M

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Resolved · JUN 02
NO
100c
YES
0c
Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (4 of 7 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.
MODERATE RESULT
NO WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.

DIRECTION WRONG
38c
94c
100c
100c
Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model Said Fair Value estimated fair price of YES Confidence Result
Bayesian Update NO 31c
38%
PIN Model NO 33c
34%
Compound Signal NO 48c
4%
DeepSeek Quant NO 19c
65%
Gemini Flash NO 35c
65%
Kimi Macro YES 60c
75%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 38c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

10 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

We tracked 13 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 10 market makers are providing $233K in liquidity, primarily on YES. YES wallets entered between 10c–85c.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0x0c0e..4eMMNO$104.7K+2%
0x2e0b..70MMNO$57.2K+0%
0xc658..84RetailYES$35.0K-33%
0xde7b..4bRetailYES$34.8K-47%
0xa52b..80MMNO$27.9K-8%
0x7c3d..6bMMYES$11.8K-38%
0x94eb..e6MMNO$9.3K-7%
0x162f..8dMMYES$9.1K-107%
0x12d6..a8MMYES$6.0K+13%
0xe25b..1bRetailYES$4.3K-55%
0x44c1..c1MMYES$3.8K-46%
0x6bab..92 MMYES$2.2K-60%
0x4e25..a7MMYES$1.2K-87%
See all 88 tracked wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

65% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$83,646 on $307.3K capital deployed (avg -27.2%).

NO positions
65% in profit
YES positions
35% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform Last YES Price Volume Final
Polymarket 11c $34.6M 0c
AI Consensus 38c ✓ matched