Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

UAE's ADNOC says full Hormuz flows won't return until first half of 2027, validating the 81% NO consensus that May normalization is implausible.

What’s Happening

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply normally transits, remains severely curtailed following the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran that began February 28, 2026. On May 20, three VLCC supertankers crossed the Strait carrying approximately 6 million barrels of Middle East crude bound for Asian markets after waiting in the Gulf for more than two months, with a fourth vessel entering shortly after. South Korean-flagged tankers were among those finally moving, marking a marginal uptick in transits even as overall volumes remain a fraction of pre-conflict levels. The question of whether strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of may hinges on a tightly constrained window of diplomatic and operational developments. [Marine News, May 20]

The most consequential signal came from ADNOC, the UAE's state oil giant, which stated on May 21 that full oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will not return until the first half of 2027. This forward guidance from the Gulf's largest producer effectively rules out near-term normalization and aligns with industry observations that traffic has only inched higher amid ongoing Iran-U.S. negotiations. ICIS reported on May 18 that none of the recently transiting vessels were container ships and that transit counts remain "tiny," with Vespucci Maritime characterizing the partial reopening as a calibrated Iranian gesture rather than a structural shift. The market reality on whether strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of may contrasts sharply with these multi-quarter timelines. [Reuters, May 21]

Maritime organisations published Industry Guidance on the Safe Management of Vessel Transit on May 20, detailing scenarios for "heightened regional security risk" — language indicating the industry is preparing for sustained disruption rather than imminent resolution. Meanwhile, CMB.Tech co-head of investor relations Joris Daman reported on May 22 that the crude tanker market has rewired itself around longer-haul routes, reaching a new equilibrium that resembles pre-conflict tightness through structural reconfiguration rather than restored Hormuz throughput. Fleet size, regional export volumes, and trade routes have all shifted to accommodate the closure. With only days remaining in May and ADNOC's 2027 timeline anchoring expectations, the operational gap between current transit counts and "normal" flows remains substantial. [Seatrade Maritime, May 22]

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