As of October 16, 2026, Polymarket prices “Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?” at 19% YES with $107K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 19% probability to: callum turner announced as next james bond?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/8 models agree on NO, fair value 13c vs market 16c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 16c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | NO | 91c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 92c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 69c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 89c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 88c | 68% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 89c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 72% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
7 of 8 models estimate NO fair value above market (69–92c vs 84c). Gemini Flash leads with 75% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 87c — market prices it at 84c. 3-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 83c, positioning against the Callum Turner announcement and signaling confidence that the market's 16% implied probability is still too high. This concentrated NO entry at a relatively rich price suggests the wallet sees the true probability as materially lower, reinforcing the dominant bearish sentiment on YES.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $1.8K | -2% |
With YES at 16c, every YES holder is underwater while all NO positions are in profit, creating strong asymmetric pressure against the YES side. The absence of profitable YES entries means there is no bid-side cushion to support a rally, and any further downside would deepen losses for the few remaining YES holders.
Polymarket prices YES at 19c with $107K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 13c. 6-point gap suggests market may undervalue NO.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 19c | $107K |
| Our Model | 13c | — |