As of September 3, 2026, Polymarket prices “Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?” at 16% YES with $52K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets put the probability at 16%: Callum Turner announced as next James Bond. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (16% YES).
Callum Turner's prospects for being announced as the next James Bond currently sit at 16% YES on the prediction market, down from a peak as the odds-on favorite earlier in 2026. The London-born actor, known for Fantastic Beasts and Masters of the Air, saw his odds surge following his marriage to pop star Dua Lipa, but recent shortlist reports have reshuffled the field. A SlashFilm report on August 26, 2026 named Jacob Elordi, Callum Turner, and others as final contenders, while a GQ power ranking from April 29, 2026 noted that a "certain Euphoria star" — widely read as Elordi — was surging past Turner in the race for 007. [SlashFilm, Aug 26]
Turner himself has publicly downplayed the speculation, telling People magazine on June 10, 2026 that he knows "nothing" regarding casting plans for the next 007 movie, adding that people who haven't spoken to him in "10 years" have reached out to ask if he's the next James Bond. Despite his denial, the actor remains a fixture in betting markets, with Scotsman reporting on August 31, 2026 that he is the third most likely candidate at 11/4 odds, behind new favorite Jack Barton. His recent film Rosebush Pruning, which premiered at the Berlin Film Festival and co-stars his wife Dua Lipa, has kept him in the public eye during the casting frenzy. [People, Jun 10]
The market's 84% NO probability reflects a broader shift in the Bond discourse, as historical precedent suggests a major press conference will formally announce the next actor, and no such event has been scheduled. A Casino analysis from July 15, 2026 noted that Turner retains "value" at his current price of 16¢, but that further press updates could create an exit point between 35¢ and 45¢ — implying traders see room for a spike if new rumors emerge. The key catalyst remains the official announcement from Eon Productions, which has yet to confirm a timeline for revealing the successor to Daniel Craig. Until then, the shortlist remains fluid, with Turner's name consistently in the mix but no longer at the top. [Scotsman, Aug 31]
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/6 models agree on NO, fair value 13c vs market 16c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 16c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | NO | 90c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 69c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 88c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 89c | 68% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 88c | 80% |
6 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (69–98c vs 84c). Gemini Flash leads with 80% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 87c — market prices it at 84c. 3-point gap supports NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 82c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $1.1K | +2% |
NO wallets entered at 82c. At current price 16c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.
Polymarket prices YES at 16c with $52K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 13c. 3-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 16c | $52K |
| Our Model | 13c | — |