How did 'Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?' resolve?

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	YES	89c	78%
PIN Model	YES	98c	96%
Compound Signal	YES	70c	40%
Claude Analysis	NO	35c	55%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	86c	72%
Grok Contrarian	NO	15c	70%
Gemini Flash	YES	88c	75%
Kimi Macro	YES	90c	75%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 71c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

7 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Despite NO being the dominant side by count, the price action and P&L distribution reveal that capital conviction sits with YES — entries clustered at 83c-99c suggest wallets accepted thin edge for high-probability resolution. NO wallets bought the tail at 3c-15c as cheap optionality, but the 25% profit rate signals that bet has largely failed; smart money is positioned for YES resolution.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x44c1..c1	MM	YES	$238.8K	+12%
This Market Entered at 86c → now 50c (+12%), $238.8K on YES Activity · 6 events · Apr 26 → Apr 30 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 26BUYYES49+$32,847$32,844 Apr 26SELLYES44−$3,480$25,940 Apr 27BUYYES83+$4,537$53,508 Apr 27SELLYES81−$27,191$25,287 Apr 28BUYYES97+$215,736$245,927 Apr 30BUYYES98+$15,928$264,726 Realized+$9,429 Unrealized+$21,172 Total Profit+$30,601 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1702) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5188..04	MM	NO	$11.6K	+36%
This Market Entered at 3c → now 50c (+36%), $11.6K on NO Activity · 4 events · Apr 28 → Apr 29 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 28BUYNO3+$4,904$4,900 Apr 28SELLNO2−$40$4,382 Apr 29BUYNO3+$594$6,536 Apr 29SELLNO9−$9$17,151 Realized+$2 Unrealized+$6,112 Total Profit+$6,114 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1554) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x6bab..92 ★	MM	NO	$8.6K	-1%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 6c → now 50c (-1%), $8.6K on NO Activity · 4 events · Apr 27 → Apr 30 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 27BUYNO30+$1,445$1,445 Apr 28BUYNO1+$636$709 Apr 29BUYNO7+$6,536$9,808 Apr 30BUYNO6+$603$8,458 Realized— Unrealized−$65 Total Profit−$65 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1726) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$7.5K	-102%
This Market Entered at 15c → now 50c (-102%), $7.5K on NO Activity · 8 events · Apr 25 → Apr 29 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 25BUYNO55+$6,630$6,631 Apr 25SELLNO55−$1,508$5,159 Apr 26BUYNO42+$8,578$12,558 Apr 26SELLNO39−$6,374$5,270 Apr 27BUYNO23+$5,296$8,314 Apr 28BUYNO1+$892$1,343 Apr 29BUYNO8+$2,058$11,034 Apr 29SELLNO8−$881$10,085 Realized−$1,402 Unrealized−$11,453 Total Profit−$12,854 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1892) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc021..a8 ★	MM	YES	$3.8K	-5%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 99c → now 50c (-5%), $3.8K on YES Activity · 2 events · Apr 28 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 28BUYYES99+$4,066$4,066 Apr 28SELLYES98−$15$4,015 Realized— Unrealized−$220 Total Profit−$220 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1326) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xe25b..1b	MM	NO	$2.1K	-51%
This Market Entered at 12c → now 50c (-51%), $2.1K on NO Activity · 1 event · Apr 29 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 29BUYNO12+$4,174$4,173 Realized— Unrealized−$2,120 Total Profit−$2,120 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1104) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc408..75	MM	YES	$2.0K	+7%
This Market Entered at 83c → now 50c (+7%), $2.0K on YES Activity · 2 events · Apr 27 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 27BUYYES83+$3,555$3,556 Apr 27SELLYES83−$1,784$1,776 Realized+$2 Unrealized+$238 Total Profit+$240 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1458) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

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89% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$10,769 on $274.2K capital deployed (avg +3.9%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

89% in profit

NO positions

11% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	94c	$13.9M	100c
AI Consensus	71c	—	✓ matched

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