AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 59c |
18%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 82c |
70%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 78c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 80c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 85c |
75%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 80c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money positioned YES at 46c — a 26c discount to current pricing — signaling early conviction that a confirmed case would materialize before May 15. The absence of NO entries from tracked wallets reinforces directional confidence, though the dominant_side NO tag suggests broader market flow contradicts the alpha read. Single-wallet signal carries low statistical weight but the entry timing favors YES continuation.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x44c1..c1 +58% | MM | YES | $5.7K | +39% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$6,856 on $5.7K capital deployed (avg +119.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 72c | $1.3M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 80c | — | ✓ matched |