AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 34c |
32%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 37c |
26%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 12c |
78%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 28c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 33c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 36c |
60%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 30c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is split but skewed bearish: the NO side entered at a premium (59c) and has been rewarded as price compressed to 30c, signaling confidence that no US Ebola case materializes before June 30. YES positioning at 22c looks more like cheap optionality on a tail event than directional conviction, with the dominant NO flow setting the gravitational pull toward resolution at zero.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x24c8..e1 | MM | NO | $3.8K | +62% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$2,695 on $3.8K capital deployed (avg +70.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $328.2K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 30c | — | ✓ matched |