AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 28c |
44%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 75c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 60c |
60%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 10c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 30c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 74c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | NO | $1.9K | +12% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$654 on $1.9K capital deployed (avg +35.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 17c | $14.2M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 30c | — | ✓ matched |