AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 6c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
94%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioned NO at 95c — a near-certainty entry betting the Fed does NOT cut by July 2026. That entry level signals the tracked wallet treated a July cut as a tail risk from the start, and the collapse to 6c YES confirms the thesis. Direction skew is unambiguously toward NO resolution.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xcaab..dd | MM | NO | $2.6K | 0% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$146 on $2.6K capital deployed (avg +5.6%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $579.1K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 10c | — | ✓ matched |