AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 7c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 6c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 15c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
94%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioned NO at 85c, signaling early conviction that the Fed would hold rates through the June 2026 meeting — a thesis the market has now priced in aggressively at 94c NO. The absence of YES entries among tracked wallets reinforces directional consensus: alpha capital saw no asymmetric setup on the cut side even when YES was cheaper. Entry discipline at 85c (vs current 94c) suggests conviction was structural, not momentum-driven.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa4b3..b8 | Retail | NO | $3.3K | +9% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$567 on $3.3K capital deployed (avg +17.4%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 7c | $785.0K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |