How did 'Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Sep 16, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO but the market resolved YES. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Sep 16, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $1.9M

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Resolved · SEP 16

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO (4 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

4 of 6 Models Agreed: YES

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	97c	94%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	88c	62%
Grok Contrarian	NO	42c	61%
Gemini Flash	YES	92c	85%
Kimi Macro	YES	92c	78%
Claude Analysis	???	—	0%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 82c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Four tracked wallets show dominant YES positioning, with entries spanning 46c-60c that signal early conviction on a Fed hike. The single NO entry at 71c is already losing, suggesting that contrarian bet was poorly timed. Smart money is clearly leaning toward a September 2026 hike, and their profitable YES entries imply they expect the price to hold or extend higher.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xa4b3..b8	Retail	YES	$10.3K	+74%
This Market Entered at 46c → now 50c (+74%), $10.3K on YES Activity · 14 events · Jun 19 → Sep 11 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 19BUYYES37+$845$845 Jun 19SELLYES49−$21$1,079 Jun 20SELLYES48−$622$442 Jun 22SELLYES53−$236$253 Jun 24BUYYES39+$291$478 Jul 15BUYYES34+$508$926 Jul 21BUYYES49+$254$1,574 Jul 26BUYYES53+$1,566$3,269 Aug 02BUYYES56+$42$3,497 Aug 30BUYYES46+$875$3,748 Aug 31BUYYES55+$1,055$5,536 Sep 03BUYYES41+$523$4,650 Sep 04SELLYES42−$105$4,659 Sep 11BUYYES59+$337$6,883 Realized+$201 Unrealized+$4,904 Total Profit+$5,105 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1440 trades).
0xeb6f..f0	MM	YES	$9.2K	+33%
This Market Entered at 52c → now 50c (+33%), $9.2K on YES Activity · 13 events · Jul 13 → Aug 04 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 13BUYYES45+$1,131$1,131 Jul 14SELLYES59−$50$1,431 Jul 20BUYYES38+$1,066$1,986 Jul 21BUYYES50+$6,938$9,561 Jul 22BUYYES53+$2,832$12,888 Jul 23BUYYES62+$589$15,763 Jul 24SELLYES60−$3,144$12,111 Jul 26BUYYES55+$926$11,997 Jul 26SELLYES59−$4,537$8,407 Jul 27BUYYES57+$7,161$15,217 Jul 29SELLYES54−$222$14,268 Jul 30SELLYES54−$3,040$11,157 Aug 04SELLYES54−$5,599$5,680 Realized+$1,490 Unrealized+$3,782 Total Profit+$5,272 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1184) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x0845..6f	MM	YES	$2.7K	+11%
This Market Entered at 60c → now 50c (+11%), $2.7K on YES Activity · 7 events · Jul 13 → Aug 02 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 13BUYYES50+$2,457$2,457 Jul 14BUYYES42+$132$2,188 Jul 14SELLYES49−$982$1,589 Jul 21BUYYES44+$2$1,419 Jul 27BUYYES61+$140$2,102 Jul 29BUYYES69+$3,761$6,144 Aug 02SELLYES58−$3,382$1,811 Realized−$209 Unrealized+$882 Total Profit+$674 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1230) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35	MM	NO	$1.1K	-84%
This Market Entered at 71c → now 50c (-84%), $1.1K on NO Activity · 2 events · Aug 14 → Aug 18 DatePositionAmountTotal Aug 14BUYNO74+$1,608$1,608 Aug 18BUYNO70+$4,823$6,344 Realized— Unrealized−$5,343 Total Profit−$5,343 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1926) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 89 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

95% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$21,389 on $23.3K capital deployed (avg +91.8%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

95% in profit

NO positions

5% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	88c	$1.9M	100c
AI Consensus	82c	—	✓ matched

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