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Resolved: Sep 16, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $1.9M

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Resolved · SEP 16
NO
0c
YES
100c
Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO (4 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.
MODERATE RESULT
YES WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.

DIRECTION WRONG
24c
91c
100c
100c
Stop Loss Target Final

4 of 6 Models Agreed: YES

Model Said Fair Value estimated fair price of YES Confidence Result
PIN Model YES 97c
94%
DeepSeek Quant YES 88c
62%
Grok Contrarian NO 42c
61%
Gemini Flash YES 92c
85%
Kimi Macro YES 92c
78%
Claude Analysis ???
0%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 82c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

3 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Four tracked wallets show dominant YES positioning, with entries spanning 46c-60c that signal early conviction on a Fed hike. The single NO entry at 71c is already losing, suggesting that contrarian bet was poorly timed. Smart money is clearly leaning toward a September 2026 hike, and their profitable YES entries imply they expect the price to hold or extend higher.

WalletCategorySideAmountP&L
0xa4b3..b8RetailYES$10.3K+74%
0xeb6f..f0MMYES$9.2K+33%
0x0845..6fMMYES$2.7K+11%
0xbacd..35MMNO$1.1K-84%
See all 89 tracked wallets →  ·  Learn about copy trading →

95% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$21,389 on $23.3K capital deployed (avg +91.8%).

YES positions
95% in profit
NO positions
5% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform Last YES Price Volume Final
Polymarket 88c $1.9M 100c
AI Consensus 82c ✓ matched