AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (5 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 47c |
6%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | 42c |
25%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 24c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 35c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 24c |
50%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 29c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
A single tracked wallet positioned NO at 49c signals mild skepticism toward the US winning, but the thin sample and tight entry near market price limits directional conviction. Smart money is leaning against the US but not aggressively — the 1c discount to current price suggests opportunistic rather than thesis-driven positioning. Without multi-wallet confirmation or deeper NO accumulation, this reads as noise more than signal.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x204f..14 | Smart | NO | $1.2K | 0% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,151 on $1.2K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 50c | $27.7M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 29c | — | × missed |