How did 'Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-17?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 18, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES but the market resolved NO. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 18, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $221.7K

Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-17?

Resolved · MAY 18

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES (5 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (5 of 5 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.

Stop Loss Target Final

0 of 5 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	85c	70%
Compound Signal	YES	63c	26%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	74c	65%
Gemini Flash	YES	75c	65%
Kimi Macro	YES	74c	70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 74c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. YES wallets entered between 69c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde04..37	Retail	YES	$2.8K	+3%
This Market Entered at 69c → now 50c (+3%), $2.8K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 12 DatePositionAmountTotal May 12BUYYES69+$2,748$2,748 Realized— Unrealized+$72 Total Profit+$72 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 916 trades).

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$2,820 on $2.8K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

0% in profit

YES positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	70c	$221.7K	0c
AI Consensus	74c	—	× missed

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